Economou, Garyfallia

Kotoulas, Vasilios

Vlahos, Christos

Voloudakis, Dimitrios

Digital Repository of Hellenic Managing Authority of the Operational Programme &quot;Education and Lifelong Learning&quot; (EDULLL)

Στυλ κύριου υπότιτλουThe possible impact of a 2o C air temperature increase on the weed flora and an arable crop in Greece. Studying the case of wild oat (Avena sterilis L.) and wheat (Triticum durum L.).Dimitrios Voloudakis, Vasilios Kotoulas, Christos Vlahos, Garyfallia Economou,  Agricultural University of Athens, Laboratory of Agronomy, 75 Iera Odos str, 11855 Athens , Greece JOINT WORKSHOP OF THE EWRS WORKING GROUPS:NOVEL AND SUSTAINABLE WEED MANAGEMET IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND WEED MAPING29 September to 03 October 2013, MAICH, Chania, GreeceClimate of Greece (1961-1990)WCM 12,3˚C      EMT 12,9˚ CNA 15,8˚ CC Y17,6˚CEA 16,8˚CD 18,2˚CC 16,4  ˚CCEG 14,5˚CATT 15,3 ˚CEP 15,7 ˚CWG 12,3 ˚CI 17,3˚C MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION 800mm WP 14,4 ˚C >2,200 mm PINDOS            1,800mm LEFKA ORI     <400mm Eastern Peloponnese&Southern AegeanGREECE 15,6 ˚C Climate Change Scenarios (IPCC 2001)A2: moderate increase in global average per capita income. Particularly strong energy consumption. Rapid rise in Global population. CO2 to 850ppm by 2100.A1B:Rapid economic growth. Strong consumption of energy but spread of new and efficient technologies. Rapid rise in global population until 2050 and then decline. CO2 to 720ppm by 2100B1: Large increase in global average per capita income. Reduced use of conventional energy sources and swift towards renewable energy. CO2 to 550 ppm by 2100 Comparing average annual temperature in Greece to Northern HemisphereProjection of climate change in GreeceTemperature increase 1961-90 to 2021-50   1,5˚C1961-90 to 2071-2100 3,5˚CProjection of climate change in Greece▪ Precipitation decline1961-1990 to 2021-2050    -5%1961-1990 to 2071-2100     -20%Previous research (climate change and wheat)▪ PESETA project (2009)    Mediterranean South Europe                                   +5% to -27% crop yields▪ Olesen et al (2011)              negative impacts in most of the European climate zones▪ Giannakopoulos  et al (2009)             cereals  +8% to +19% until 2060▪ Parry&Rosenzweig (1999)                                      i) shortening of the growing period       ii) decrease in water availability                                     iii) poor vernalization§ Supit et al (2010)        higher yield decrease in Greece and Romania 0.09 tn/ha/year and 0.07 tn/ha/yaer respectivly▪ Greek Climate Change Study Committee (2011)                               positive effect in North-Eastern Greece and Western Greece from 0-10%         negative effect in  Central Eastern Greece and Eastern Peloponnese >10%         Previous Research (climate change and weeds)▪ Olesen et al (2011): Higher intensity of weed occurrence or introduction of new weed species▪ Lee (2011): Chenopodium album (C3) & Setaria viridis (C4)Plant phenology was more affected by increased temperature than elevated CO2 . Biomass and harvested seed were significantly decreased for only Temperature effect on C3 while they were increased by combination of Temperature+CO2 increase. In C4  biomass did not differ significantly from that of the control. Elevated temperature strongly influences biomass production during reproductive stage compared to the vegetative growth stage with greater effect in C3 weeds than in C4. Materials and Method▪ Study AreasAlexandroupoli –Eastern Macedonia/Thrace (NE)Mikra- Western and Central Macedonia (N-NW)Arta&Agrinio – Western Greece (W)Karditsa&Yliki- Eastern and Central Greece (C-E)Pyrgos- Western Peloponnese (SW) AGRINIO ARTA YLIKI ALEX/LI PYRGOS MIKRA KARDITSAmean1,99 1,32 2,27 2,29 1,77 2,05 2,66Standard error ±0,05 ±0,02 ±0,06 ±0,07 ±0,04 ±0,05 ±0,08Wheat yields (tn/h) in the seven study areas for the period 1961-1990Climate scenario and models§ Emission Scenario A1B IPCC (2001)§ CO2  359ppm (1990) 532ppm(2050) 714ppm(2100)§ Temp +1.8˚C (2050) +3.9˚C (2100)  § Precipitation -10% (2050) -25% (2100)§ Climate Models derived from the ENSEMBLES project§ HadRM3§ C4I§ ETHZ§ DMI-HIRHAM§ Max&min Temperature,  Relative humidity, Wind speed, Solar irradiance, PrecipitationCrop simulation model§ AquaCrop is a crop water productivity model developed by the Land and Water Division of the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)Basic Components§  the climate, with its thermal regime, rainfall, evaporative demand and carbon dioxide       concentration;§  the crop, with its development, growth and yield processes;§  the soil, with its water (and salt) balance;§  the management, with practices including irrigation, fertilization and mulching.§ Simulation of wheat yield with the use of AquaCrop      Salemi et al (2011),  Andarzian et al, (2011), Mkhabela&Bullock (2012), Aloui et al (2012)§ AquaCrop simulations respond to changes in CO2 concentration (Vanuytrecht et al., 2011)§ Use of AquaCrop for wheat simulation under climate change conditions, Droogers&Hunink (2012), Karamanos&Voloudakis (2011)▪ AtmosphereDaily minimum-maximum air temperature, rainfall, ETo, CO2 annual concentration§ CropPhenology, canopy cover, rooting depth, biomass production, harvestable yield, reduction of the canopy expansion rate, acceleration of senescence, closure of stomata, planting/sowing data, thermal based on Growing Degree Days (GDD)§ Soilhydraulic conductivity at saturation, volumetric water content at saturation, field capacity, wilting point§ Field Management§ Irrigation managementFiled experiment Yliki 2010, 2 soil types, 5 plotsPre-calibrated wheat crop file in AquaCrop required small changes to adapt it to Yliki Planting date 15.11.2010  Harvest date 27.06.2011No irrigation appliedNo fertilization stressHarvest Index 44% Soil clay loamLoam with restrictive layer 60cmAquaCrop application in wheatFuture projections of some climatic parametersWheat yield response to climate change Agrinio Alex/lis Arta Karditsa Mikra Pyrgos Yliki 1961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-2050no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2HadRM3 -7,5 19,8 5 47,2 -1,2 18,3 -10,8 30,9 36,5 69,9 -6,2 16,1 3,5 21,2C4I -11,5 14,6 -3,9 13,6 1,2 18,9 -3,6 38,8 -11,7 13,9 -8,7 14,2 1,1 31,3ETHZ 10,2 24,6 11,32 20,87 6 8,6 -14,3 20,15 23,8 5,89 -12,1 16,9 -38,1 -19,7DMI-HIRHAM-5,2 19,8 -3,9 21,7 -5,4 18,9 -11 15,3 13,4 44,1 -9,2 14,5 -20,7 2,2no CO2: ambient concentration of CO2CO2 : effect of CO2 concentration increase Simulation of wild oat development with AquaCrop ▪ 5 plots 30cmX30cm  Agricultural University of Athens 2013 ▪ 8.1  18.1  29.1  12.2   25.2  6.3  19.3   28.3  9.4   22.4  30.4  10plants/m2observationsa. Length of rootb. Dry biomass above groundc. Dry biomass undergroundd. Phenological observationse. Yield productionSimulation of growth development ▪ Digital photos ▪ Sigma Scan Pro8/1/2013 18/1/2013 29/1/2013 12/2/2013 25/2/2013 6/3/2013 19/3/2013 28/3/2013 9/4/2013 22/4/2013 30/4/2013%COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVER %COVERA 7,0 22,5 44,3 69,6 74,3 78,6 83,9 89,1 93,7 87,6 85,5B 6,4 21,9 56,3 78,0 80,6 97,8 97,4 92,5 93,0 95,9 95,6C 5,2 11,0 25,4 43,2 61,2 66,2 75,7 80,9 82,2 88,9 90,9D 7,9 17,8 36,8 68,7 72,5 86,7 90,0 92,2 94,5 96,2 93,0E 2,7 3,6 9,9 23,9 47,7 58,7 58,0 58,6 65,9 70,2 78,1A%change in Canopy Cover15,6 21,7 25,3 4,7 4,4 5,2 5,2 4,7 -6,1 -2,1B 15,5 34,4 21,6 2,7 17,2 -0,5 -4,8 0,5 2,9 -0,3C 5,8 14,4 17,9 17,9 5,0 9,5 5,2 1,3 6,7 2,0D 9,9 19,0 31,9 3,9 14,1 3,4 2,2 2,3 1,7 -3,2E 0,9 6,3 13,9 23,9 10,9 -0,6 0,5 7,4 4,3 7,9▪ Failure to simulate high rate growth plants ▪ Better simulation with low rate growth plants for Canopy Cover                          RMSE= 0,39  d=0,78§ For yield we compared the dry weight of grains from the plot and we projected for an hectare           RMSE= 0,24 d= 0,85Wild oat productivity response to climate change Agrinio Alex/lis Arta Karditsa Mikra Pyrgos Yliki 1961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-20501961-1990 to 2021-2050no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2 no CO2 CO2HadRM3 -2 15,1 11,2 35,6 2,5 16,4 -11,2 24,5 29,1 44 -2,3 14,8 5,1 24,1C4I -6,2 19 -1,1 16,2 1,2 10,1 1 24,3 -7,8 12,3 -4,3 8,9 1 42ETHZ 2,4 13,7 14,4 18,4 6 9,1 -4,3 13,6 12,3 21,1 -7,8 8,4 -14,6 3,4DMI-HIRHAM1,2 12,6 -4,1 15,5 -5 10,4 -3,3 12,3 16,2 28,9 -4,5 12,1 -15,7 4,1Conclusion▪ In general wild oat and wheat had a similar response to climate change▪ It seems that in most of the cases under no CO2 enrichment the wild oat is more tolerant to climatic vulnerability especially in the driest climate models▪   Mikra and Alexandroupolis (Northern Greece) are more favorable to climate change. Increase in productivity for wheat and wild oat▪ Karditsa, Pyrgos and Yliki had the highest decrease among the study areas while wild oat had lower reduction than wheat Uncertainties▪ No FACE experiments for weeds in general▪ Lack of experimental data for wild oat▪ Separate plots for wheat and wild oatACKNOWLEDGEMENTS▪ This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund –ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) – Research Funding Program: Heracleitus II. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

The possible impact of a 2o C air temperature increase on the weed flora and an arable crop in Greece. Studying the case of wild oat (Avena sterilis L.) and wheat (Triticum durum L.).

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The possible impact of a 2o C air temperature increase on the weed flora and an arable crop in Greece. Studying the case of wild oat (Avena sterilis L.) and wheat (Triticum durum L.).

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Digital Repository of Hellenic Managing Authority of the Operational Programme "Education and Lifelong Learning" (EDULLL)

The possible impact of a 2o C air temperature increase on the weed flora and an arable crop in Greece. Studying the case of wild oat (Avena sterilis L.) and wheat (Triticum durum L.).

Abstract

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Digital Repository of Hellenic Managing Authority of the Operational Programme &quot;Education and Lifelong Learning&quot; (EDULLL)

Digital Repository of Hellenic Managing Authority of the Operational Programme "Education and Lifelong Learning" (EDULLL)