Real Economic Convergence in the EU Accession Countries

Abstract

The paper aims to assess the real economic convergence among eight CEE countries that accessed the EU, as well as their convergence with the EU. Two aspects of convergence are analysed: (a) income convergence as a tendency to close the income gap; (b) cyclical convergence as a tendency to the conformity of business cycles. Income convergence is analysed in terms of ? and ? coefficients using regression equations between GDP per capita levels and GDP growth rates. Cyclical convergence is analysed using industrial production indexes and industrial confidence indicators. The analysis covers the period 1993-2004. The main findings may be summarised as follows: 1) CEE countries converge between themselves and towards the EU as regards the income level; 2) CEE countries reveal a good cyclical synchronisation with the EU; cyclical conformity within the region is better seen when the group is split into three subgroups: (a) Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, (b) Hungary and Poland, (c) the Baltic states. Both types of economic convergence are strongly affected by the dependence on the EU markets, including trade and capital flows.Economic Convergence, Economic Growth, Business Cycles, Economic Integration