Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions

Abstract

Rainfall Index (RI) insurance provides forage and hay producers with group risk protection against drought related losses. However, insurance premiums and risk protection are currently based on pooled weather data series and do not account for the impacts of specific climate phases, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on local rainfall distribution. This analysis examines differences in the expected payoffs on the RI insurance under varying coverage levels based on probabilities of rainfall shortage during specific climate events at four Agricultural Experiment Stations in Alabama. Policy makers and producers are expected to benefit from the results that show the varying effects of climate on expected payouts from this insurance.Risk and Uncertainty,