Der Zusammenhang von Stiller Reserve und geringfügiger Beschäftigung (The connection between hidden labour force and marginal part-time employment)

Abstract

"The paper examines whether the revision of the employment figures in the national accounts - which occurred basically as a result of a better recording of marginal part-time employment - had an effect on the estimation of the hidden labour force. For this the IAB concept of the hidden labour force, which is based on a dependence on the business cycle, was examined both analytically and empirically. The mathematical-statistical analysis proves that it is not possible to assume a priori that the hidden labour force was incorrectly estimated as a result of the under-recording of marginal part-time employment. It is more a matter of an empirical issue which must clarify whether the bias of marginal part-time employment in the microcensus follows a certain pattern. Only if this bias is dependent on the business cycle in a certain way would the estimation of the hidden labour force be affected by it. In the empirical part of the paper the figures of the microcensus, which forms the data basis for the estimation of the hidden labour force, were compared with equivalent figures from the socio- economic panel on marginal part-time employment. By means of regression analysis a test was carried out for the entire group of people in marginal part-time employment to ascertain what pattern the under-recording in the microcensus follows. According to the empirical results the bias tends to point more to an over-estimation of the hidden labour force. In view of a weak data basis, however, the result is still subject to some reservations. In particular it is still necessary to obtain a confirmation based on similar disaggregated data, by age, gender etc. as that on which the IAB estimate of the hidden labour force is based." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))stille Reserve - Messung, Erwerbspersonenpotenzial, geringfügige Beschäftigung