Climate changeModelsWater storageWater management

Clayton, Terry

Eriyagama, Nishadi

English

Research Papers in Economics

- 1 - 
 
 
MEDIA RELEASE October 19, 2009    (3 pages) 
 
Environmental Journalists have Important Role to Play in Helping Sri Lanka’s Water Sector Meet the 
Coming Challenges of Climate Change 
When it comes to climate, our future is uncertain. In terms of what the future holds for Sri Lanka’s 
climate, we still can’t be certain how climate change will affect our rainfall in the coming decades.  One 
way of looking at the situation is: we don’t know how much rainfall our grandchildren will be able to 
count on or the security of their future water supply.  
The climate models scientists are using do predict with some certainty that Sri Lanka will become 
increasingly warmer. Warmer temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more water vapor, which is 
the source of rain, but that doesn’t necessarily mean more rainfall for Sri Lanka or that the rain will fall 
in the same predictable monsoon seasons we have known for generations.   
Scientists make predictions about rainfall using climate models. There are two projections or 
estimations of rainfall from climate models for Sri Lanka, but they contradict each other.  One group of 
models estimates higher mean annual rainfall, and the other estimates lower mean annual rainfall.  One 
group estimates that there will be increases in rainfall throughout the country, but the other group says 
that rainfall will only increase in the western half of the country, and that the eastern half will see a 
decrease in rainfall.   
When scientists talk about ‘models’, they actually mean mathematical equations. For example, if you 
want to estimate how long it will take you to drive from Colombo to Kandy, you could use the model 
Time equals Distance divided by Speed or T=D/S. This equation is a model for estimating the time to 
your destination. This model is very simple and doesn’t include other factors that will affect your travel 
time like what day of the week you choose to travel, what time of day you depart Colombo, weather 
conditions, whether or not some part of the road is under construction, how often you stop for breaks 
and so on. We could include all those factors in the model but we would need lots more data.  
Scientists developing models of our climate system face a similar but much more difficult task. Our 
climate is a very complex system with possibly thousands of variables interacting with one another to 
produce weather conditions from day to day, year to year, decade to decade. Different groups of 
scientists are developing different models. The models keep getting better as scientists learn more 
about how the climate system works, but they are far from complete and no one group of scientists has 
sufficient data to make a highly accurate model.   
We will surely have a better picture of what is happening with our climate in 10 years time, but we can’t 
afford to wait 10 years before we take action on climate change.  Think about your own home security. 
No matter where you live, there is a chance that at some point in the future, a thief will try to break into - 2 - 
 
your house. Do you wait until the thief is at the gate before you start taking security precautions? 
Climate change could steal our future by changing conditions that could threaten our food security and 
our physical safety in the form of extreme weather events. Would it not be wise to start taking security 
precautions now? 
The problem is, what kind of precautions do we invest in if we are not sure about the direction of 
climate change?  
Smart investments would be investments that prepare us for either of the two predicted conditions. 
Such investments mean that whatever happens, our government officials would have “no regrets” about  
the money spent and voters would have ‘no regret’ about their elected officials. What a happy situation 
that would be.  
One example of a ‘no regrets’ solution is restoration of our ancient tank system. A good water storage 
system acts as a buffer against climate variability either way.  If the climate gets wetter, we have enough 
storage capacity to mitigate flooding. If the climate gets dryer, we have enough water to irrigate crops.  
Another ‘no regrets’ option is rainwater harvesting. This is not a new idea, especially not in Sri Lanka, 
but it’s an idea that’s been somewhat forgotten and needs to be promoted in a big way.  Rainwater 
harvesting just means collecting rainwater and storing it in tanks instead of letting it run off across the 
ground into the rivers and out to the sea. People always need incentives to change their behavior so one 
idea to promote rainwater harvesting might be to make it compulsory to receiving drought relief.  If you 
live in a dry zone and you don’t harvest rainwater, you don’t qualify for as much drought relief as a 
farmer or household who does. It’s the principle of “helping those who help themselves”. 
In the face of uncertain changes in our climate, we face three main challenges.  
The first challenge is to change attitudes among water users. We are accustomed to thinking of water as 
a free and abundant resource, and do not pay much attention to efficiency of use.  We need to start 
looking at rainfall as the ultimate source of water, and shift away from relying on river and groundwater 
as the “main” source of water.   After all, where does the water in rivers and groundwater aquifers come 
from? Environmental journalists can play a pivotal role here in helping to change attitudes, by educating 
people through the media.   
We also need to look at ways of reducing demand for water and how we can make more efficient use of 
the water we have.  Again, a change in thinking is required here and environmental journalists can do a 
lot to help change this thinking.  
The second challenge is to create or promote one central agency to coordinate activities in the water 
sector.  We need this coordination to promote data sharing, research, and finally, implementation of 
adaptation responses.  In Sri Lanka, the Water Resources Board has the most powerful Act of legislation 
in the water sector.  This Act gives the Water Resources Board the mandate to act as the central 
coordinating body for all water activities.  However, their role has been limited to rather narrow 
activities such as groundwater exploration.  Do environmental journalists have a responsibility to - 3 - 
 
enquire into the obstacles, constraints and limitations that prevent such a body from fulfilling its 
mandate?  
Our third challenge is to conduct a national water resources audit. Like a financial audit, a water 
resources audit tells us how we are “spending” the water we have, how much we need and how much 
we have “in the bank”. Assessing the present status of our water resources is extremely important for 
understanding future impacts due to climate change.  A national water audit would be a one-stop-shop 
for all Sri Lanka’s water related data and one of the first of its kind in the region. For a project like this to 
succeed, the initiating government department would need active co-operation with other government 
agencies and strong public support.   
Creating awareness and educating people about the importance of this and similar initiatives is a job 
best done by environmental journalists working closely with scientists, policy makers and water 
management experts.     
 
For more information, please contact:  
Ms. Nishadi Eriyagama 
Water Resources Engineer 
International Water Management Institute  
n.eriyagama@cgiar.org  
Tel: +94 11 288 0000 ext. 1304  Fax: + 94 11 278 6854 
 

Environmental journalists have important role to play in helping Sri Lanka’s water sector meet the coming challenges of climate change. Media release

http://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H042627.pdf

Environmental journalists have important role to play in helping Sri Lanka’s water sector meet the coming challenges of climate change. Media release

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Research Papers in Economics