Organised by: Cranfield UniversityIn this paper applications of logistic S-curve and component logistics are considered in a framework of longterm
forecasting of emerging technologies. Several questions and issues are discussed in connection with
the presented ways of studying the transition from invention to innovation and further evolution of
technologies. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented and diverse types of competition are
discussed. Second, a component logistic model is presented. Third, a hypothesis about the usability of a
knowledge growth description and simulation for reliable long-term forecasting is proposed. Some interim
empirical results for applying networks of contradictions are given.Mori Seiki – The Machine Tool Compan

De Guio, R.

Kucharavy, D.

Schenk, E.

English

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Long-Run Forecasting of Emerging Technologies with Logistic Models and Growth of Knowledge

In this paper applications of logistic S-curve and component logistics are considered in a framework of long-term forecasting of emerging technologies. Several questions and issues are discussed in connection with the presented ways of studying the transition from invention to innovation and further evolution of technologies. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented and diverse types of competition are discussed. Second, a component logistic model is presented. Third, a hypothesis about the usability of a knowledge growth description and simulation for reliable long-term forecasting is proposed. Some interim empirical results for applying networks of contradictions are given. Keywords

D. Kucharavy

E. Schenk

R. De Guio

CiteSeerX

Long-run forecasting of emerging technologies with logistic models and growth of knowledge

19th CIRP Design Conference, Cranfield : Royaume-Uni (2009)International audienceIn this paper applications of logistic S-curve and component logistics are considered in a framework of long-term forecasting of emerging technologies. Several questions and issues are discussed in connection with the presented ways of studying the transition from invention to innovation and further evolution of technologies. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented and diverse types of competition are discussed. Second, a component logistic model is presented. Third, a hypothesis about the usability of a knowledge growth description and simulation for reliable long-term forecasting is proposed. Some interim empirical results for applying networks of contradictions are given

Kucharavy, Dmitry

Schenk, Eric

De Guio, Roland

Name not available

Archive Ouverte a LUniversite Lyon 2

http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk:8080/bitstream/1826/3730/3/Long-Run_Forecasting_of_Emerging_Technologies_with_Logistic_Models_and_Growth_of_Knowledge-2009.pdf

Long-Run Forecasting of Emerging Technologies with Logistic Models and Growth of Knowledge

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