Cross-border Investment, Heterogeneous Workers, and Employment Security – Evidence from Germany

Abstract

We analyse how foreign direct investment (FDI) aff ects employment security using administrative micro data for German employees. FDI intensity is measured at the industry level, which enables us to take into account the sum of direct eff ects at the investing fi rms as well as indirect eff ects of FDI that stem from competitive eff ects, input-output linkages, technology spillovers, and changes in factor prices. We account for both inward and outward FDI, and diff erentiate these two types of FDI by source and destination region, respectively. We also investigate whether specifi c worker groups are aff ected diff erently by FDI. We fi nd that both inward and outward FDI at the industry level signifi cantly reduce employment security. This is particularly the case for inward FDI coming from the western part of the European Union, as well as for outward FDI going to Central and Eastern Europe. The eff ects are quantitatively small overall, but sizeable for some worker groups such as old and low-skilled workers.Foreign direct investment; labour market transitions; duration analysis