Innovation is primarily associated with a high level of uncertainty, risk, and a lot of investments. These negatively affect the Bulgarian forest enterprises, which in general are “low-tech” and are investing less in innovation. The main goal of the paper is, by the use of the Markov Chains methodology, to propose an adapted methodology for risk assessment at the beginning of the innovation process in Furniture production in Bulgaria. Additionally, the study presents possible situations and describes them throughout the theoretical approaches in a probabilistic way. The research results can be used to avoid some decision-making mistakes before the start of the innovation process through an easy-to-use methodolog
