Income Uncertainty, House Price Uncertainty and the Transition Into Home Ownership in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty and house price uncertainty on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in income uncertainty, avoiding the endogeneity of income to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price uncertainty, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for income uncertainty in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price uncertainty.Home ownership, income uncertainty, house price uncertainty.