The deep economic-social crisis, which marked the transition of Romanian society from the planned economy to market economy, affected to a high level the Jiu Valley. This occurred because the monoindustrial character of the region didn’t sustain a quick accommodation of the economical system, thus after 16 years from the events December 1989, the reality from the Jiu Valley is far away from the present times. Many programs and strategies tried to develop the local economy, but without results. We wish to carry out a statistical analysis of the Jiu Valley and we present a forecast of some territorial indicators, as well as the ways and the means of economical development of the region.crisis, development, regional, analysis, prognosis.

Cîrciumaru Daniel

Murarita Ilie,

Siminica Marian Ilie

English

Research Papers in Economics

155
Business Statistics – Economic Informatics 
THE ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSIS FOR SOCIAL SYSTEM OF JIUVALLEYREGION
Lect., PhD student  Mur ri a Ilie,
Ph.D. Assoc. Prof. Siminic  Marian Ilie, 
Assist. Ph.D. student Cîrciumaru Daniel 
University of Craiova 
Faculty of Economics and Business 
Administration  
Craiova, Romania 
Abstract: The deep economic-social crisis, which marked the transition 
of Romanian society from the planned economy to market economy, 
affected to a high level the Jiu Valley. This occurred because the mono-
industrial character of the region didn’t sustain a quick accommodation of 
the economical system, thus after 16 years from the events December 
1989, the reality from the Jiu Valley is far away from the present times. 
Many programs and strategies tried to develop the local economy, but 
without results. We wish to carry out a statistical analysis of the Jiu Valley 
and we present a forecast of some territorial indicators, as well as the 
ways and the means of economical development of the region. 
Key words: crisis, development, regional, analysis, prognosis. 
In Romania, coal industry registered a slow increase during the first half of the 
1990, followed however by a marked decline of production in the second part of the last 
decade. The objectives of the first strategy of reorganization in mining, from 1998, 
were referring to adjusting the mining industry at the requirements of market economy, 
minimize state direct involvement as owner, investor and subsidies supplier, increasing 
the environment protection degree, attenuating the social problems caused by the lock-
out of some capacities and straightening the economy of the mining regions. After 
many years of reorganizations, dismissals and lock-out of many unprofitable mines, 
doubled by the labour productivity increase and ecological impact reduction, constitute 
perceptible results of the strategy, while increasing efficiency by reducing costs, 
redeployment, developing investments and alternative activities constitute unreachable 
desiderata.
Jiu Valley constitutes the unmatched spokesman of the coal industry difficulties 
from Romania, region with important economic-social problems. The deep economic 
crisis, which marked the transition of the Romanian society, affected in a high level 
especially the Jiu Valley Hollow. This occurred because the mono-industrial character 
of the region didn’t sustain a quick accommodation of the economical system. The 
reality from the Jiu Valley is far away from the present times. Located in south of 
Hunedoara county, the Petro ani Hollow, known better as the Jiu Valley, including the 
following main places: Petro ani, Lupeni, Vulcan, Uricani, Petrila, Aninoasa. From the 
regional point of view, the Jiu Valley region belongs to the West W Region, which, at 
its turn, is part of the Euro region Danube-Cri -Mure -Tisa. The prognosis allows the 
identification of the possible ways of evolution in future of the social indicators, and 
this way the establishment of national developing strategies. 156
Revista Tinerilor Economi ti
Between 1994 and 2004, the total population from Jiu Valley, reduced both for 
each place and for the entire region, reaching from 168.654 inhabitants in 1994, 
149.233 in 2004 (figure no. 1.). The prognosis for “Total population at 1
st July (stable)” 
in Jiu Valley is pessimistic: only 113.572 in 2009. 
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aninoasa Lupeni Petrila Petro ani Uricani Vulcan
 Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara. 
Figure no. 1 The total population evolution in Jiu Valley, between 1994 and 2004, 
for each location.
Although increases of population also appear from one year to another, the 
general trend is of its decrease. If until 1998 changes took place having as effect the rise 
of population, after this year a continuous decrease of population is happening. 
Hereupon the levels recorded by the birth-rate and death-rate indicators, in Jiu Valley, 
the natural increase sees a decreasing general trend (4,86‰ - 1994 and 0,05‰ - 2004). 
For the Petro ani Hollow places, the natural increase had a sinuous evolution, with 
consecutive rise and fall, having even negative values for many years (figure no. 2). 
The prognosis for „Birth-rate at 1000 inhabitants” has a negative evolution, due 
to continuous decrease: 14,37‰ in 1994, 10,15‰ in 2004, and in 2009 only 7,66‰. 
„Death-rate at 1000 inhabitants” has a negative evolution, due to its continuous 
increase: 9,51‰ in 1994, 10,09‰ in 2004, and in 2009 10,14‰. Putting together the 
evolution of the two indicators, a negative natural increase is reached for the next 5 
years.  
The migration of population from Jiu Valley manifested permanently the past 
16 years, being favored by a large number of aspects, such as: the events December 
1989, the massive dismissals from 1997, and the way mining labour formed. The 
maximum level of the migration rate was reached in 1998 (41,48‰), and the minimum 
level in 1995 (15,27 ‰). The situation established beneath 20‰ for the last four years. 
Regarding the prognosis for the migration, the facts obtained are not concluding. 157
Business Statistics – Economic Informatics 
-5
-2,5
0
2,5
5
7,5
10
12,5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aninoasa Lupeni Petrila Petrosani
Uricani Vulcan JV
Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara.
Figure no. 2 The dynamics of natural increase of population in Jiu Valley, for each 
location, between 1994 and 2004. 
In figure no. 3 is presented the evolution of educational establishments’ number 
existing in Jiu Valley, for the six towns. A decrease of educational establishment 
number comes out both for each place as for the entire area (from 108 in 1994 to less 
than half in 2004 - 45). 
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aninoasa Lupeni Petrila Petro ani Uricani Vulcan
 Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara.
Figure no. 3 The dynamics of educational establishments from Jiu Valley, for each 
location, between 1994 and 2004. 
The evolution of scholar population in teaching system is relieved in table no. 
1. The scholar population from Jiu Valley, with few variations, remained relatively 
constant (between 35.000 and 37.500). Neither for the places there are no significant 
variations between 1994 and 2004. 158
Revista Tinerilor Economi ti
Table no. 1 The evolution of scholar population from Jiu Valley, for each location, 
between 1994 and 2004  
Year
Locality 
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 
Aninoasa 833 907 956 989 948 922 909 860 858 812 761 
Lupeni  6929 7066 7389 7375 6945 6575 7450 6571 6513 6609 6654 
Petrila  5141 5301 5623 5792 5389 5352 5386 5108 4993 4980 5041 
Petro ani 14127 14373 13468 14046 13912 14096 14245 15084 15581 16883 16526 
Uricani  2149 2251 2344 2462 2059 2077 1997 1969 1933 1835 1819 
Vulcan  6336 6466 6652 6788 6466 6167 5924 6113 5873 5819 5983 
JVR  35515 36364 36432 37452 35719 35189 35911 35705 35751 36938 36784 
Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara.
In “Education”, the indicators evolution, but especially the prognosis, is 
contradictory. While the number of educational establishments reduces, the number of 
those entered into the system increases. However, a special situation is represented by 
the number of students, which is a real one: it increases and are estimated for 2009 
12.372 students. The explanation for this evolution is represented by the fact that the 
University of Petro ani became a regional appeal, students from all over the Jiu Valley 
Hollow learning in this institution. Teaching staff keeps its decreasing trend from 2000-
2004 (from 1.839 drops to 1.723), after a period of growth, 1994-2000 (from 1.564 to 
1.839), the predicting for 2009 showing a level of only 1.166 employees. 
The substructure of health system in Jiu Valley was presuming, in 2004, a 
number of 4 hospitals, 7 health units, 12 surgeries, 10 stomatologies and 25 drugstores. 
Regarding the number of beds from the public hospitals, it registered a decreasing trend 
from 1994 until now (1.632 in 1994, 1.596 in 1996, 1.477 in 2001 and 1.129 in 2004). 
The dynamics of staff in health system in Jiu Valley, between 1994 and 2004, are 
rendered with the helping of figure no. 4, which concludes that the trend is of increase 
for all kind of staff. 159
Business Statistics – Economic Informatics 
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Doctors Medium sanitary staff Stomatologists Chemists
Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara.
Figure no. 4 The evolution of health system staff from Jiu Valley, for each 
category, between 1994 and 2004.
The Jiu Valley inhabitants’ precarious health condition is the result of the area 
special conditions. It is well-known that the miners‘ professional diseases lead to a 
medium life time, much lower than the national one. Work accidents in mining are 
presenting a decreasing trend. The upper work and protection equipment supplies made 
that, after 2001, the number of work accidents minimize from 1.356 to 340, and deadly 
accidents decrease from 18 to 6 (figure no. 5). 
Source: The National Company of Pit coal Petro ani. 
Figure no. 5 Work accidents evolution at The National Company of Pit coal 
Petro ani, between 1997 and 2004. 
In health system, the reforms made that the number of sanitary units 
permanently decrease. The number of beds in hospitals minimized until 2004 (to 
1.129), and in 2009 only 732 beds are estimated. If between 1994 and 2004, the number 
of doctors waved, however growing until 323, between 2005 and 2009, the prognosis 
8
32
6 6
17
18
13 13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
n
u
m
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e
r
 
e
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p
l
o
y
e
e
s
 
d
e
a
d
l
y
 
a
c
c
i
d
e
n
t
s
deadly accidents
1441
1356
1181
962
510
1217 1142
1141
total accidents
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
N
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r
 
i
n
j
u
r
e
d
 
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m
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 160
Revista Tinerilor Economi ti
shows a decreasing trend, so that in 2009 only 241 doctors will work. In exchange, the 
medium sanitary increased until 858 in 1994-2004, also estimating an increase in the 
next 5 years, reaching 1.043 persons. 
Public utility development is closely related to the concepts of quality life and 
human development, in general, the quality and quantity of dwellings, streets, drinking 
water supply, sewerage supply, gas supply, buses. On the whole, a relative stability of 
dwellings numbers, as well as of the inhabited surface are obvious, both for each town, 
as for the whole hollow. Public utility development, as well as human life quality, 
chase, especially the substructure of the analyzed region. In Jiu Valley, important public 
utility development indicators are present in table no. 2. Although all the indicators 
register increases, showing a favorable situation, the problem which stands up is of the 
rhythm of achievement of these increases: very low. From this point started the great 
disparities towards the developed countries or even towards other regions of the 
country. 
Table no. 2 Substructure indicators evolution in Jiu Valley, between 1994 and 
2004
Year
Indicators  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 
Existing dwellings 
- number 
55659 55691 55725 55810 55857 55884 55800 55936 56358 56894 56967 
Town streets
length - km 
388 388 381 385 385 391 402 419 409 410 410 
Drinking water 
supply length - km
225,7 238,1 232,7 245,1 232,8 245,2 232,8 245,2 232,8 249,4 273,1 
Sewerage supply 
length - km 
138,7 138,7 138,8 138,8 138,8 138,8 138,8 138,8  166 188,5 189,8 
Gas pipe supply 
length - km 
30,2 42,2 42,2 57 33,5 33,5 38,4 33,3  35,9  42,7  57,7 
Buses number   44 46 32  40 18 18 10 10  66  85  97 
Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara.
The predicting referring to public utility development is normal. Thus, for 
“Total existing dwellings” there is an increase between 1994 and 2004, in 2009 the 
56.873 level will be reached. “Habitable surface” increases between 1994 and 2004, 
being estimated to 2.450.021 meters square in 2009. A series of indicators present 
increases both since 1994 until 2004, and after this year, as follows: “Town streets 
length” (388 km – 1994; 410 km – 2004; 446 km – 2009), “Drinking water supply 
length” (238,10 km – 1994; 273,10 km – 2004; 297,85 km – 2009), “Sewerage supply 
length” (138,70 km – 1994; 189,80 km – 2004; 307,61 km – 2009), “Gas pipe supply 
length” (42,20 km – 1994; 57,70 km – 2004; 85,91 km – 2009), “Number of buses” (44 
– 1994; 97 – 2004; 301 – 2009). 
The Post Decembrist transition represented the economic restraint of activity, 
which was translated into a massive dismissal. Thus, the average of employees, 
between 1992 and 2004, almost halved. This situation, same as the distribution of 
labour for the localities of Jiu Valley, is restored in figure no. 6. Although in some 
surveys (Evaluation of present and perspective situation of coal industry in Romania 
1990-2000, survey draft by a Governmental Work Commission, December 1990, page 
93), since 1990 only in producing pit the engaged staff was forecasted to reach in 2000 
55.000 persons, in fact, in 2000, the hole population in Jiu Valley was under that level.  161
Business Statistics – Economic Informatics 
“Employees average” reduced between 1994 and 2004, and the predicting 
shows a decreasing trend until 2007, followed by a slow reestablishment in the next two 
years of the provisional horizon (30.630 in 2007; 30.811 in 2008; 31.538 in 2009). If in 
agriculture a slow increase of employees in pointed out, the decrease in industry is more 
important: in 2009 only 11.780 employees are estimated. The extractive industry deals 
with a similar situation: the decrease between 1994 and 2004, and in 2009 only 7.258 
employees will remain. In the processing industry, a reestablishment leading to a 
growth of staff is expected, so that, in 2009, their numbers reach those from 1994. In 
“Electrical and thermal energy, gas and water”, the average of employees, after 
oscillations until 2004, will resolutely reduce. In construction, a reestablishment of staff 
is expected, after the decrease recorded until 2004, an ascendant trend is estimated. If in 
Trade, Transport, Financial activities, decreases are recorded, in Public Administration, 
Education and Health increases are believed to happen.  
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aninoasa Lupeni Petrila Petro ani Uricani Vulcan
Source: The County Office of Statistics Hunedoara 
Figure no. 6 The evolution of the average of employees in Jiu Valley, for each 
location, between 1994 and 2004.
The labour market represents, no doubt, one of the most sensitive domains of 
Jiu Valley Hollow. By its permanent pinch, by the lack of regional solutions, dramatic 
situations stroked the population, although from the statistical point of view, things are 
not as serious as they seem. Thus, the registered and paid unemployed’ situation, for 
each place in Jiu Valley, between 1997 and 2004 (figure no. 7), show a continuous 
decrease, their number minimizing for almost three times (for Jiu Valley Region, from 
19.430 unemployed in 1997, to only 6.786 in 2004). The prognosis for “Unemployed”, 
at regional level, but also for each place, show reduce till disposal. The results are 
considered to be inconclusive, even if the descending trend of the indicator is natural. 162
Revista Tinerilor Economi ti
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aninoasa Lupeni Petrila Petro ani Uricani Vulcan
 Source:  CAE (County Agency for Employment) Hunedoara.
Figure no. 7 The evolution of unemployed in Jiu Valley, for each location, between 
1997 and 2004.
Jiu Valley registered, thus after 16 years from the events December 1989, a 
reduced progress level and into a very low living of the inhabitants of the region. The 
multiple difficulties founded in the economic-social evolution can’t find their pending 
through ill-assorted approaches, but by considering the region as a hole, with all its 
advantages and disadvantages. In this direction, the zonal development strategy is
considered to necessary have as main objectives stimulating the creation of new jobs by 
developing the private sector, rehabilitating the regional substructure, supporting the 
zonal activities, transforming the environment, promoting the Jiu Valley. The reform in 
Jiu Valley will have to contain as a central point the social dialog, even though it is 
possible for this attitude to stand as a slowing down of the reorganization, however it’s 
rather to be a slower advancement, but constant, than a voluntarist acceleration 
containing the risk of returning to the starting point.  
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Craiova, 2003 
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THE ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSIS FOR SOCIAL SYSTEM OF JIU VALLEY REGION

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