Research results from SIMA-Department of Statistics and Department of Policy Analysis MADER-Directorate of Economicsfood security, food policy, Mozambique, maize, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Q18,

SIMA, Research Team

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Research Papers in Economics

1   The opinions expressed here are entirely the responsibility of the author, and do not reflect in any way the official
opinions of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development (MADER).
February 11, 2002  No. 28E
Research results from SIMA-Department of Statistics and Department of Policy Analysis
MADER-Directorate of Economics
Maize Exportation: Threat to Rural Food Security?  
Results of a Survey of Rural Households in Northern Mozambique
1
By: SIMA Research Team
INTRODUCTION:
The question of how family sector producers in
Mozambique ensure their food security in the face of a
reduction in availability of cereals has become a subject of
important discussions among politicians, researchers, and
decision makers in the Ministry of Agriculture (MADER)
and elsewhere throughout the country. A key element in
the discussions has been the export of food crops,
especially  maize, to neighboring countries, and the effects
that exportation can have on local prices and food security
in rural areas.  This discussion was particularly intense
during the marketing year 2001/2002  because there were
maize exports to Malawi during a year of reduced
production and prices for maize in the north rose
dramatically.  In addition to the concerns for food security
in the zone, some maize millers complained of the
difficulty in obtaining sufficient quantities of maize for
milling. 
There are various arguments both for and against taking
steps to prevent exportation in years such as 2001/2002.
To inform the debate based on empirical evidence from
family sector producers, the Department of Policy
Analysis of MADER, with the Agricultural Market
Information System (known by its Portuguese acronym,
SIMA), designed and implemented a survey of producers
in northern Mozambique.  The survey was designed to
obtain producers’ perceptions on the crop year as well as
their assessment of strategies to ensure their own food
security, comparing strategies from good years (such as
2000/01) to years of scarcity (such as 2001/02).  This
Flash presents the results of that survey.
METHODOLOGY:
The Survey on Food Security (FS) was carried out during
the second week of November 2001.  A special focus was
placed on the role of exports during a year of scarcity
(poor production) in the food security of households. The
target group of the survey was smallholder producers of
food crops residing in zones from which maize grain was
exported.  These zones include the provinces of Niassa,
Nampula, and Zambezia; the districts covered are a
combination of districts along the Malawian border with
Mozambique and other districts with high total production
of maize. These districts were the following: Cuamba,
Mandimba and Mecanhelas in Niassa Province; Malema
and Lalaua in Nampula Province, and Alto Molócue,
Mocuba, Milange and Gurue in Zambezia Province. In
sum, nine districts in three provinces were included in the
survey. 
In each district, three villages were selected, based on
information from the district directors on production and
marketing of agricultural commodities. Within each
village, five to seven households were randomly selected.
Interviews were conducted individually with the heads of
households of each household, regardless of their age or
marital status, as long as the household grows food crops.
A total of 167 households was interviewed.  
The survey was conducted in two parts. The first part was
designed to cover the household strategies to ensure food
security in 2001/02 (a year of reduced harvest, high
exports, and high prices) compared with strategies in
2000/01 (a year of relatively normal production levels,
low exports, and lower prices). The second part of the
survey covered various aspects related to market
activities, comparing the marketing years of 2001/02 and
2000/01.   
RESULTS:
Food Security Situation Last Year and This Year
Table 1 portrays the food security situation for the
households interviewed, for both the year before thePag. 2
interviews (2000/2001) and the current year (2001/02). In
the three provinces where interviews were conducted,
more than 50% of the households  indicated that their food
security was good or very good in 2000/01. Zambezia
Province had the lowest level with 53% of households
indicating that food security was good/very good in
2000/01, compared to Nampula with 77% of households.
These numbers suggest that the harvest may have been
better in Nampula Province that year. 
Comparing the two years, more than 80% of households
in each province stated that their food security was worse
in 2001/02 than in 2000/01, with no great difference in
percentage across the three provinces. 
Table 1.  Food Security Situation of Interviewed Households
(HH),  2000/01 and  2001/02
Own
assessment of
HH food
security
Response
Type
Zambézia Nampula Niassa
Last year
(2000/01)
% that responded "yes"
Good/Very
good
53 77 60
Regular 45 21 27
Bad 2 3 13
This year
(2001/02)
compared with
last year 
Better 1 3 4
Same 15 8 4
Worse 84 90 89
When asked about the causes for worse food security in
2001/2002, the majority of households indicated excessive
rains as a principal factor, with other factors including
pests particularly wild animals (monkeys, wild pigs, and
even elephants).  The few households who indicated that
they were in the same situation each year (i.e., good in
both years) attributed this to good cassava harvests.  
Most Common Strategy to Ensure Food Security 
Table 2 provides a summary of household strategies used
to ensure food security in the two marketing years of
2000/01 and 2001/02. Cassava consumption was very
important for households in Zambezia Province (more
than maize), in 2000/01 as well as in 2001/2002, such that
45% of interviewed households stated to ensure food
security during the hungry season. 
The importance of cassava as a strategic food security
crop increased in Nampula, such that while only 33% of
households had used cassava as a principal strategy last
year, this year 54% of households used it.  Although in
Nampula and Zambezia, cassava consumption is
important, the same is not true in Niassa, where the
consumption of this crop is relatively less important,
never being the principal strategy of the majority of
households.
Last year, maize consumption was the most common
strategy used by households in Nampula (62%) and on
Niassa (67%).  However, this year, maize consumption
was stated as the principal strategy by only 13% of
households in Nampula and only 38% in Niassa. 
Table 2.  Principal Strategies used by Households to Guarantee
Food Security, 2000/01 and 2001/02 (in percentages)
Most Used
Strategy
Zambézia Nampula Niassa
Last
year
This
year
Last
Year 
This
year
Last
year
This
year
Own maize     31 5 62 13 67 38
Own cassava 57 44 33 54 18 18
Other crop
(own)
65 3 3 7 2
Purchased
Food/In Kind
labor payment
6 46 3 31 9 42
Also in Table2, purchases of food and food or funds
received for work in others’ fields (known as “ganyu-
ganyu”) became more important in 2001/2002 compared to
2000/01.  Last year, no more than 10% of households used
it as the principal strategy for food security in any of the
three provinces. Regarding “ganyu-ganyu” in years of
high prices, such as 2001/02, many households offer labor
because they need food, such that the supply of labor
increases, while the demand for labor remains stable or
even less.  Households that contract labor under “ganyu-
ganyu” paying with food crops (such as maize) are likely
to give less maize for the work in years of reduced
production compared to the maize that they give in better
production years.  This means that “ganyu-ganyu” is not
reliable as a strategy for food security exactly when it is
most needed.  Even if the work is paid in cash rather than
food, the same logic applies: it is expected that lower
amounts would be paid when labor is abundant.
Therefore, the effectiveness of “ganyu-ganyu” as a
strategy for food security  needs to be assessed for years
of low production and high prices. Pag. 3
What Should the Government Do in Years of Low
Production and High Prices?
In the first section at the top of Table 3, it is evident that
farm households do not sell all of their maize in years of
high demand for maize, regardless of whether the high
demand is due to low production or increased demand
from foreign traders.  Across the three provinces, the
majority of households responded that they “never sell the
entire crop.”  Zambezia is an interesting case in that 84%
of households “never sell all of the crop” yet this province
has the highest influx of foreign traders (using ground
transport), compared to Nampula and Niassa.  
With respect to marketing in 2001/02 compared to
2000/01, the middle section of Table 3 indicates that about
95% of households interviewed in the three provinces did
not sell maize in 2001/02 or sold less than they sold the
previous year, confirming the statements from the earlier
question on sales and retention from cropping.
 
Households who indicated that they sold no maize in
either year (about 32% of all households) were affected by
crop failures.  Meanwhile those households who sold
maize in both years (21% of the total) said that their sales
were lower in 2001/02 than the year before. 
The bottom section of Table 3 indicates that more HH
(76%) in Zambezia Province tend to be “pro-exports,”
whether that is done by domestic traders or foreign
traders, whereas Niassa Province has fewer households
(29) who support exports.  Yet, in Niassa, 69% of
households interviewed that exports should not be
prohibited (40%+29%).  In general, the results show that
households would rather not have exports prohibited even
in years of low production with resulting high prices. 
Households interviewed preferred traders buying for
export for they felt that such purchases would guarantee
a higher profitability for them.  When traders are only
buying for local sales, the households indicated that the
monetary rewards were not as high and there was a chance
of not being able to sell due to a lack of traders. In
addition, the Malawian traders in particular often bring
goods for barter, trading clothe for maize, for example. 
For those households who indicated their desire for
government to prohibit exports of maize in years of
scarcity, both by local traders and foreign traders, they
indicate that exports tend to increase hunger and that often
they end up having to buy commodities that they
previously sold, and the purchasing prices are two to three
times the prices that they were paid. 
Table 3: Behavior of Households and their Opinion on what the
Government Should Do During Years of Low Production/High
Prices
Strategy Type of response Zambézia Nampula Niassa
% of HH that responded “Yes”
What does the
hh do when
there is low
production/high
price
Resort to other
crops
81 0 1 4
Never sell all of
crop production
84 74 75
Buy food 1 0 5
other actions 6 11 7
What did the
HH do with
their maize this
year (2001/02)?
Did not sell maize 
this year or last
year
30 28 40
Did not sell maize
this year, but did
last year
35 59 42
Sold less maize this
year than last year
31 8 13
Sold more maize
this year than last
year 
45 4
What should the
government do
in years of low
production/high
prices?
Prohibit exports 18 18 27
Permit exports but
only by domestic
traders
41 8 4 0
Permit exports by
both foreign and
domestic traders
76 47 29
Other actions  2 3 0
Prices Received for Maize in 2000/01 and 2001/02
Regarding Table 4, average prices for maize (in Mt/kg)
rose this year in all three provinces.  In particular, prices
were higher in Milange (a border zone) than in other
districts in Zambezia, in both years. This is a  reflection
of the trade with Malawi.  
At the time of this survey (November 2001), the majority
of households had already marketed their maize, between
July and October.  The lack of sales in May and June
suggests that the majority of households have the capacity
to wait until prices begin to rise, thus benefitting from
higher prices. Pag. 4
Table 4: Prices Received for Maize in 2000 and 2001 in Each
District (Mt/kg)
District Most common
price in 2000
(Mt/kg)
Most common
price in 2001
(Mt/kg)
Zambézia 1162 1600
    Mocuba 1012 1230
    Alto Molócuè 802 1599
    Gurue 913 1333
    Milange 1688 2323
Niassa 1440 2846
    Cuamba 1266 3069
    Mandimba 1714 1429
    Mecanhelas 1471 3000
Nampula 1239 1728
    Lalaua 1631 1134
    Malema 1137 2119
Average in the Zone 1252 1874
Plans for Agricultural Year 2001/2002
Table 5 provides a summary of planting for the current
cropping year.  Of note is the increase in area planted to
maize in Niassa (84% of households) without reducing the
area of other crops, compared to 82% in Nampula and
61% in Zambezia.  This increase may be motivated by the
higher prices this year (2846 Mt / Kg, in Table 4) in
Niassa compared to the other two provinces.
Table 5: Plans for Planting for the Next Season
Planting Strategy
for Next Year
Zambézia Nampula Niassa
% of households who responded
“Yes” 
Increase the area
under maize without
reducing area to
other crops
61 82 84
Reduce the area
under other crops to
increase maize area
10 2
No change in maize
area
28 18 11
Other options 10 0 2
Regarding household stocks of maize to sell this year,
98% of the households no longer have any maize to sell
because they did not produce sufficient quantities.
Perhaps this is the reason that the interviewed households
will be increasing the area planted to maize, without
reducing the area to other crops, suggesting that the higher
maize prices benefit the nation as a whole.  
CONCLUSIONS:
This study examined the food security strategies adopted
by rural households in both years of good harvest and
years of bad harvest.  Marketing year 2001/2002 ( a poor
harvest year) and year 2000/2001 (a better harvest year)
were used to exemplify the alternative strategies adopted
by households in different years.  The study focused on
the case of northern Mozambique because of the
importance of food crop production in the zone and the
active food grain markets for domestic and foreign trade
particularly in times of low domestic and regional
production.  
Among the most important findings are that: 1) rural
households in northern Mozambique use maize as a main
food security crop, yet cassava plays a more important
role, particularly in years of poor crop production; 2)
families also grow other cereal crops, and turn to labor
activities paid in kind or in cash, to guarantee food
security; 3) the food security strategies of the rural
families vary from year to year depending upon the crop
harvest but they do not sell all of their production even
when producer prices are very high; 4) the majority of
households believe that the government should never
prohibit exports even when production is poor; and 5)
rural households use market signals to make decisions on
future plantings. 
These findings are particularly important for policy
determination, and are valuable when thinking about the
agrarian economy fo Mozambique, where the costs of
selling surplus northern production to southern
consumption zones are very high.  Several studies
(Coulter 1996; and  Santos and Tschirley 1999) have
determined that it is more advantageous to export to other
country in the region (Malawi for example) than to sell
products to the south.  Similarly it is more advantageous
for the south to import products from neighboring
countries (South Africa for example) than to bring maize
from the north.
Secondly, with current transport links between northern
and southern Mozambique, and between those and
neighboring countries, measures to prohibit the export  of
maize from Mozambique do not necessarily benefitPag. 5
consumers in the center and south.  Research (Santos and
Tschirley 1999) indicates that maize exports from the
north do not have significant statistical effects on the
prices in central and southern Mozambique.  It is
important to note that high maize prices in the south result
from a regional deficit of maize this year, notably  in
South Africa, and a reduction in South African exports,
rather than reduced national production.
Finally, reducing exports from northern Mozambique
particularly in years of low production and high prices,
could have negative effects on the agricultural sector as a
whole, through lowering the motivation of rural producers
to grow maize.  These effects could have long term
repercussions for the maize sub-sector, including the
large-scale milling industry, undermining the recent
investments made in northern Mozambique.  The
government can support this industry, as well as the maize
sub-sector as a whole, without resorting to restricting
exports.  The government can provide support through
investments in timely diffusion of crop forecasts in the
country and the region.  This would allow industry to
prepare its strategies to guarantee sufficient stocks of raw
material for full operations.  Other “pro-market” actions
are valuable, including improvement of roads, reduction
of bureaucratic blocks to the formation of farmer
associations, and, in collaboration with the private sector,
promotion of improved system of grades and standards.
These actions would contribute to the development of the
sub-sector as well as the reduction of poverty and increase
in overall economic growth in the north.
___________________
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Arlindo, Pedro, et al. 2001.  Economia Agrícola do Norte
de Moçambique:  Desenvolvimentos Recentes e
Perspectivas.  Flash 27P.  Ministério da
Agricultura e Desenvolvimento Rural.  Maputo.
Bowen, Nita.  1998.  Traders and Trading:  Malawi and
Zambézia Province, Mozambique.  Annex 1 to
Whiteside (1998).
Coulter, Jonathan.  1996.  Maize Marketing and Pricing
Study - Mozambique (2 vol).  Natural Resources
Institute/ODA, Report No. R2247 (C). Chatham.
Santos, Ana Paula and David Tschirley.  1999. The Effect
of Maize Trade with Malawi on Price Levels in
Mozambique: Implications for Development Policy.
Michigan State University. East Lansing.
Staatz, John. 1997.  Notes on Subsector Analysis as a
Diagnostic Tool for Linking Industry and
Agriculture.  Department of Agricultural
Economics.  Michigan State University.
Tschirley, David and A. Santos.  1995.  Desafios Para
Garantir a Concorrência e Reduzir os Custos No
Sistema Alimentar de Mocambique.  Relatório de
Pesquisa No. 28.   Ministério da Agricultura e
Pescas.  Maputo.
Tschirley, David. 1998.  Regional Trade and the Economic
Development of Northern Mozambique.  Flash 13E.
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.  Maputo. 
Whiteside, M. 1998.  When the Whole is More than the
Sum of the Parts:  The Effects of Cross-border
Interactions on Livelihood Security in Southern
Malawi and Northern Mozambique.  A Report for
Oxford Great Britain in Mozambique.
For further information contact:
SIMA/MADER, tel. (01) 46 01 31
FAX (01) 46 01 45 / 46 02 96
Email: SIMA@bilene.virconn.com.  
Website: www.aec.msu.edu/agecon/fs2/mozambique

Desafios Para Garantir a Concorrência e Reduzir os Custos No Sistema Alimentar de Mocambique. Relatório de Pesquisa No. 28. Ministério da Agricultura e Pescas.

Economia Agrícola do Norte de Moçambique: Desenvolvimentos Recentes e Perspectivas. Flash 27P. Ministério da Agricultura e Desenvolvimento Rural.

Maize Marketing and Pricing Study -

Notes on Subsector Analysis as a Diagnostic Tool for Linking Industry and Agriculture.

Regional Trade and the Economic Development of Northern Mozambique. Flash 13E. Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.

Traders and Trading: Malawi and Zambézia Province,

When the Whole is More than the Sum of the Parts: The Effects of Cross-border Interactions on Livelihood Security in Southern Malawi and Northern Mozambique. A Report for Oxford Great Britain in Mozambique. For further information contact:

Maize Exportation Threat to Rural Food Security? Results of a Survey of Rural Households in Northern Mozambique

Maize Exportation Threat to Rural Food Security? Results of a Survey of Rural Households in Northern Mozambique

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