Exploratory spatial analysis of human migration behavior along the U.S. -- Mexico border

Abstract

Includes bibliographical references (p. 64-68)This study explores the phenomenon of illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States in a spatial and temporal context. Existing literature on this issue suggests that migration patterns change according to local conditions at the origin in Mexico and patrolling strategies at the border. A demographic indicator called the Migration Propensity Index (MPI) is used to quantify the amount of immigration from the state and municipio of origin in Mexico to the sector of destination in the U.S. This index is calculated using population counts for areas in Mexico and amounts of total apprehended immigrants originating from those areas. Using apprehension data from 1999 to 2006, this study identified Mexican states that had higher and lower sending rates of illegal immigrants to each of the ten Border Patrol sectors of the southwest U.S.-Mexico border (Livermore, San Diego, El Centro, Yuma, Tucson, El Paso, Marfa, Del Rio, Laredo, and McAllen). Having identified those states, it showed a consistent trend in the study period. Investigating further at a higher spatial resolution, the municipio level, allowed the validation of patterns found at the state level. Finally, global and local spatial autocorrelation indexes were used to identify clustered areas of municipios showing high and low MPI values; and census and socio-economic variables for selected municipios were used to find correlation between MPI and conditions of life at the origin