我国“货币中性”再检验

Abstract

monetary neutrality exerts essential importance on the making of monetary policy targets, and its effect. This paper, by employing IRF and AIRF, tests the characteristic of monetary neutrality in china, plus fluctuation features as well. The testing results show: monetary stock, whatever defined by M0, M1, or M2, presents non-neutrality feature, increase of growth rate of M2 can bring permanent accumulative loss on real output; there is oscillation feature from real output, by giving monetary growth shock. Its underlying policy suggestions are: money in the short-run cannot be taken as stabilizer of economic growth; there are trade-offs between target of economic stable and growth; stable speed of money growth benefits economy stabilizatio