ALTERNATIVE CYCLING STRATEGIES FOR SHRIMP FARMING IN ARID ZONES OF MEXICO: DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

Northwest Mexican coastal waters have large seasonal temperature variations, high salinity, and are subject to intense solar radiation. Shrimp farms in this region have been using two annual production strategies; six- to eight-month cycle with one complete harvest and several partial harvests, or two, three- to four-month cycles with complete harvests. The preferred strategy depends on two uncertain variables; shrimp growth, which varies across the region, and market price, which varies across the season. A bioeconomic model was used to compare the economic yield of the two cycling strategies for three zones across the region, under three alternative average annual temperatures states. Simple decision theory criteria are used to show that the two-cycle strategy dominates the one-cycle strategy in the Bahia de La Paz zone. Results for central and northern Sonora are conditional on temperature.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,