Waiting Times and Waiting Lists: A Model of the Market for Elective Surgery

Abstract

We present a simple dynamic model of the demand and supply for elective surgery in the NHS and test it using a panel of quartely data for 123 English health authorities from the second quarter of 1987 to the first quarter of 1993. We find that supply is increasing in measures of the previous period's waiting time and that demand is decreasing in the previous period waiting time. The results imply that health care systems which are rationed by waiting do respond to indicators of waiting times and waiting lists. More generally, the paper adds to the small but consistent body of research which demonstrates that health care systems respond to the publication of high profile performance data.Waiting times; Rationing; Elective surgery.