Welfare flows and caseload dynamics

Abstract

Data from the 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participations are used to estimate AFDC/TANF entry and exit rates. These estimates of AFDC/TANF entry and exit rates are used to conduct simulations aimed at determining the roles of economic conditions and welfare reform in explaining AFDC caseloads changes during the 1990s. The results of these simulations indicate that economic conditions were the engine driving the run-up in caseloads during the early 1990s and the decrease in caseloads following 1993.welfare caseloads, AFDC caseloads, TANF caseloads, welfare durations, welfare spells