Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets

Abstract

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot (St) and future (Ft) prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modeling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-future equilibrium relationship, (St-ß2Ft ). When the slope of the cointegrating vector ß2>1 (ß2