Pension reforms, educational choices and the long term dynamic of employment in Italy

Abstract

In this paper we use CAPP_DYN, a population based dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the Italian employed population during the period 2005-2050. We find that the more interesting changes will affect the composition rather than the level of the employed population. We investigate main factors that are at work (cohorts effects, educational choices and pension reforms). Finally we present some sensitivity analyses to test our results with respect to different hypotheses regarding the future legal retirement age.