International Relations/Trade, Marketing,

Hockman, Bruce

English

Research Papers in Economics

Coping with the emerging markets crisis:
a view from the markets
{
Bruce Hockman*
1. Introduction
From a market perspective, the emerging market crisis began with the £oat
of the Thai Baht on 4 July 1997 and spread quickly through a wave of
speculative attacks on other Asian markets. But it was when the Korean
economy deteriorated and the government was forced to approach the IMF
for assistance that many market participants began to take the issues more
seriously. E¡ectively this occurred a year before the symposium at which this
article was originally presented. (I have tried to present the information as
it was at the time of the symposium, but this article also updates for more
recent data.)
Australia has to date come through the crisis in much better shape than
had generally been predicted. Indeed, given that the decline in growth in
emerging countries in the Asian region turned out to be greater than
forecasts in the early stages, the growth impact on Australia was even less
than the most optimistic of forecasters had predicted. The noted American
economist, Paul Krugman, dubbed Australia `The Miracle Economy' and
claimed to be unable to understand how this outcome had been achieved.
This article attempts some simple explanations of what went right in the
Australian economy and how market players and others failed to appreciate
some of the dynamics involved.
2. What we trade is also important
The ¢rst mistake that market players made was to observe that Australia
sends around 65 per cent of its exports into the Asian region, a much higher
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999,
108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK or 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 43:3, pp. 385^395
{An earlier version of this article was presented at the AARES Symposium, The Asian
Crisis and the Australian Agricultural and Resource Sectors, held in Sydney on 20
November 1998.
*Bruce Hockman is a Senior Economist with Deutsche Bank, Sydney.percentage than any other developed nation (see table 1). It was a simple
matter to assert that because of these strong trade interlinks, the impacts of
slower growth in the region would be strongly felt in Australia.
But much of what Australia exports to the region is commodity based,
with tourism services also of increasing importance. From the start of the
crisis my Australian colleagues and I urged both our international colleagues
and our clients to remain mindful of this. As table 2 shows, the initial
response of global forecasters seriously underestimated the impact on the
emerging Asian markets of the policies that their governments were forced
to pursue to stabilise their own economies. Such forecasts generally pre-
sumed that there would be a move to current account surpluses as countries
sought to maximise exports whilst limiting imports wherever possible.
As it turned out, the impacts on domestic demand in particular in the
emerging markets were more severe than had been anticipated. But the
Table 2 Growth forecasts (percentage change, year on year)
Pre-Crisis November 1997 March 1999
1998 1998 1999 1998
a 1999
Industrial countries 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2
Asia 6.5 4.7 5.7 0.4 1.9
Latin America 4.8 3.1 3.5 2.4 ÿ1.6
CIS 3.2 3.2 4.0 ÿ4.7 0.6
World 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.9
Australia 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.8 3.3
Source: Deutsche Bank.
Note:
a Figures in this column are not forecasts. Some were estimates made prior to the release of
national statistics.
Table 1 Trade matrix: per cent of total exports
Exporting country
Importing country Australia Japan US EU
ASEAN-4 10.2 12.1 4.1 1.7
Korea 8.4 7.1 4.4 0.9
Hong Kong 3.9 6.3 2.4 1.1
China 4.3 4.9 2.0 1.0
Taiwan 4.6 6.5 3.3 0.7
Japan 23.0 11.0 2.2
Asia 65.0 43.6 30.9 9.3
Rest of World 35.0 56.3 69.1 90.7
Source: IMF.
386 B. Hockman
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999fundamental £aw in the logic was the failure to appreciate the nature of
these countries' trading patterns. Taking Korea as an example, roughly 50
per cent of all imports would be classi¢ed as capital goods, 40 per cent as
intermediate goods and 10 per cent as consumer goods. Given the priorities
in such an economy, the best-placed trading partners (or least-worst) should
be those supplying inputs to the production processes within the export
industries. (This pattern is evident across the region in the pattern of
Australia's trade and is illustrated in ¢gure 1.) Put another way, as I told
my colleagues in a global forecasting hook-up in November 1997, it is
much better to export coal and iron ore into the Korean economy than
computerised lathes or luxury motor vehicles. As we will also see below,
the fungible nature of Australia's commodity and service exports allowed
for other opportunities that did not exist for many other developed
economies.
3. Keeping the emerging markets in perspective
As the crisis deepened, many commentators exaggerated the impact on the
global economy. In the early days of the crisis, we could be comforted that
the problems of the smaller economies would have little e¡ect internation-
ally. After all, in a normal year, the incremental output in China would
account for Malaysia's GDP in just six months and Thailand's within
another twelve. The impact of slower growth was always likely to be more
Figure 1 Australian merchandise exports to troubled Asia (seasonally adjusted)
Source: ABS, Deutsche Bank.
Coping with the emerging markets crisis 387
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999marked within the region. In the global recession of the early 1990s the Asian
tigers had sustained their growth, at least in part, through an increase in
intra-regional trade and the servicing of each other's rising consumer classes.
Much of the region's growth came from within and was satis¢ed from
within. In reality, by 1995 non-Japan Asia accounted for only about 22.5 per
cent of global industrial production compared with the United States at
22.4 per cent, Japan at 11.7 per cent and the rest of G7 at 21.1 per cent.
From Australia's perspective, the importance of the US cycle should not
be underestimated. Though the direct linkages are low (we run our largest
trade de¢cit with the United States), the United States is an important
market for many of our trading partners and this is what links our growth
cycles as closely as ¢gure 2 illustrates.
US growth has similarly surprised commentators with its strength. Though
not as likely to have been in£uenced by a downturn in Asia, the US economy
was already over seven years into a growth phase when the crisis hit. But
policy authorities in the United States did not tamper with the cycle.
In£ation remained benign, and the disin£ationary in£uences from global
excess supply that the emerging crisis had highlighted, combined with a
strong currency and £exible economy to allow the policy authorities to
remain on the sidelines. In the United States, the Federal Reserve's Open
Market Committee was eventually called into the ¢ght to ease monetary
policy on three occasions, but as a precaution against systemic risks in
¢nancial markets as crisis conditions also emerged in Latin America and
Russia. Strong US growth, however, was exactly what the times required.
Figure 2 Real growth in Australia and US (4 quarters ended, per cent change)
Source: Datastream International, Deutsche Bank.
388 B. Hockman
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999Growing markets in North America, and to a lesser extent Europe, provide
the outlet for emerging market production that potentially allows for all
countries to export their way out of the crisis. As ¢gure 3 shows, 1998 saw a
substantial wedge emerge between G7 demand and G7 production. One
way that this circle is squared is through international trade, as demand is
satis¢ed by emerging country production.
4. Australia was in good shape when the crisis hit
Compared to the underlying structure of the economy just over a decade
earlier, when the then Treasurer Paul Keating warned that Australia faced a
future as a `Banana Republic', the Australian economy was travelling well
when people began to worry about Asia. This allowed the policy authorities
the room to move, or more precisely, the ability to tolerate some wild
£uctuations in ¢nancial markets without needing to respond. As table 3
shows, Australia had above trend growth, in£ation below the Reserve Bank's
2 to 3 per cent target over a run of years and a current account de¢cit near
the bottom of the levels of recent cycles. Interest rates were also at the lowest
levels for 30 years and bond spreads were favourable ö indicating some
degree of investor con¢dence in the sustainability of these policy settings. In
addition, the Commonwealth Government's Budget had just returned to
underlying surplus.
Figure 3 Working o¡ excess supply
Source: Datastream International, Deutsche Bank.
Coping with the emerging markets crisis 389
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 19995. The importance of the exchange rate
When Paul Krugman professed that he didn't understand the Australian
miracle, it seems that he forgot the Macro 201 lecture about the power of
£oating exchange rates. Indeed almost all forecasters forgot the message that
a freely £oating exchange rate in a small open economy will bear much of
the brunt of any external shocks. Market economists have much to be
modest about in this episode. Figure 4 looks at Australia's major trading
partner growth performance (adjusted for the changing composition over
time). In the pre-£oat period external shocks were re£ected in the real eco-
nomy, but in the post-£oat period, and in particular in the latest episode, the
real economy has been insulated by adjustments in the exchange rate.
Table 3 Australia: then and now
June 1997 December 1998
GDP 3.7 4.7
Underlying CPI 1.7 1.6
Current account de¢cit (% GDP) 3.3 5.4
Cash interest rate 5.5 4.75
Figure 4 Major trading partner growth
Note: *Calculated using annually adjusted weights from 1981^82 and Australia's top 10 export destina-
tions.Priorto1981^82calculatedusingtop7exportdestinationswithweights¢xedforsevenyearperiods
Source: ABS,DeutscheBank.
Major trading partner growth
390 B. Hockman
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999Unlike Australia, both Canada and New Zealand used a monetary con-
ditions index (MCI) approach to monetary policy, tightening short-term
interest rates to stave o¡ the in£ationary consequences of lower exchange
rates, and even to try to reverse the exchange rate declines. In the case of our
neighbours across the Tasman, this all but produced a domestic recession
even though their principal export market (Australia) was continuing to
grow at a surprising pace.
The Australian dollar was also the `victim' of what might be termed proxy
selling. With market perceptions about Australia's economic fortunes being
tied to emerging Asia, this exaggeration o¡set the overly optimistic early
forecasts for Asian growth. Australia remained a liquid foreign exchange
market and there was little political risk of its markets being closed. Traders
who had become more risk averse traded the Australian dollar as a proxy
for any bad news out of Asia rather than risking direct involvement with
emerging markets.
At the same time, for almost exclusively domestic reasons, the Japanese
economy was deteriorating. This deterioration led to a fall in the yen against
major currencies, and bad news in Japan was seen as a source of further
stress for non-Japanese Asia. As a result, both the Japanese yen and the
Australian dollar fell almost in lock step in the year from July 1997 (see
¢gure 5), prompting many to believe that a new link was emerging. (It is well
understood that most external shocks will impact in opposite ways on the
two economies so there is little justi¢cation for any link of the Australian
dollar to a Yen-bloc.)
Figure 5 Australian dollar/Japanese yen
Source: RBA, IRESS, Deutsche Bank.
Coping with the emerging markets crisis 391
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999The lower Australian dollar was also an important element in the export
diversion story. Though we had lost competitiveness and even some markets
in Asia (see ¢gure 1), our competitiveness across a range of commodities,
goods and services against European and North American producers had
risen (see ¢gure 6). In aggregate, export volumes regained pre-crisis levels
quite quickly (see ¢gure 7), while the heavy decline in Asian tourist arrivals
(see ¢gure 8) was largely covered by a surge in arrivals from Europe and
North America (see ¢gure 9), much of which was driven by a favourable
shift in the Australian dollar.
Figure 6 Australia's exports by major destination (US$, % year on year, 3-month moving
average)
Source: ABS, Deutsche Bank.
Figure 7 Australian export volumes (Index Sept 97  100)
Source: ABS, Deutsche Bank.
392 B. Hockman
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 19996. The importance of domestic conditions
The ¢nal element in understanding how Australia has coped with the Asian
crisis is to appreciate the importance of domestic economic conditions in
determining growth outcomes. In the year prior to the crisis, domestic ¢nal
demand accounted for 99.9 per cent of Australia's output. Traditionally net
Figure 8 Tourist arrivals by country of residence (% change, year on year, 3-month moving
average)
Source: ABS, Deutsche Bank.
Figure 9 Tourist arrivals by country of residence (% change, year on year, 3-month moving
average)
Source: ABS, Deutsche Bank.
Coping with the emerging markets crisis 393
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999exports and changes in stocks adjust to o¡set each other and are bu¡ers to
domestic production.
In the early stages of the crisis, domestic consumers and businesses, faced
with dire predictions and gloomy news stories, began to fear the economic
outlook for the coming year or so. But as ¢gure 10 shows, there was a
dichotomy between assessments of current and future circumstances. In the
Australian vernacular, consumers were saying `I'm all right Jack'. Con-
¢dence in current conditions rose to the highest level in the present cycle at
the same time as assessments of future conditions fell to cycle lows. As
employment growth picked up in the second half of 1998, con¢dence in
future conditions also recovered, driving overall con¢dence higher. This sets
up the virtuous circle of increased con¢dence resulting in higher consumer
spending, leading to increased employment and further rises in con¢dence
and so on. E¡ectively consumers (and their business counterparts) began to
notice that Jack was all right too.
7. Conclusion
Much of the analysis that takes place in ¢nancial markets is based on the
KISS principle (keep it simple, stupid). Market economists apply their
training to looking for and explaining correlations between economic data
and market behaviour. This article has tried to show where the reality of the
emerging markets crisis and its impact on Australia diverged from early
Figure 10 Consumer con¢dence index
Source: ABS, WBC/MI, Deutsche Bank.
394 B. Hockman
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999expectations. Some of these possibilities were being £agged relatively early
in the debate while others have become clearer with the advantage of
hindsight.
It may well be that not all of the explanations pro¡ered in this article
would stand up to more rigorous assessment using econometric techniques.
But market participants, and those who advise them, must form judgements
quickly and act upon them. Often, this means that markets act out of
instinct, and the instincts of the mob are often a powerful force. Those who
are the ¢rst to make accurate assessments of the eventual outcome will be
the ¢rst to see opportunity in what others perceive as a threat.
The better-than-expected performance of the Australian economy has been
not so much a miracle, and certainly not some overnight £ash in the pan,
but the result of changes made over the past decade and a half. The most
signi¢cant of these in the circumstances was the December 1983 decision to
£oat the Australian dollar. But also important was the determination by the
Reserve Bank that the £oat should remain clean and to place considerable
faith in the market mechanism as a means of transmitting appropriate
adjustments to the economy.
Coping with the emerging markets crisis 395
# Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999

Coping with the emerging markets crisis: a view from the markets

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