Identification of strategic industries: a dynamic perspective

Abstract

Reliable estimates of the economy-wide losses associated with closedown of an industry are generally hard to obtain. In the input-output literature, numerous measures of the social value of industries were proposed. These measures are mostly based on comparative statics results, whereas a dynamic perspective seems much more in demand. In this paper, "hypothetical extraction" methods are used in a new dynamic input-output model of economic growth. This model also stresses the importance of technological linkages between industries and of international trade performance. The potential power of the dynamic extraction methodology is illustrated by simulation results for a hypothetical economy.