Haley, Stephen L.

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Research Papers in Economics

Agricultural Outlook Forum     Presented: February 26-27, 2009 
U.S. Department of Agriculture 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009/10 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 
 
 
Stephen Haley 
Economic Research Service 
United States Department of Agriculture  
     
 
2009/10 U.S. SUGAR SUPPLY AND USE
1 
 
Stephen Haley 
Economic Research Service, USDA 
 
Basis for projecting 2009/10 supply and demand: 
 
$  Beginning stocks are taken from 2008/09 ending stocks in the February 2009 World Agricultural 
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 
 
$  Projections of supply and demand are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity 
Estimates Committee for sugar. 
 
Key results for 2009/10: 
 
$  Beginning stocks are 1.066 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a decrease of about 595,000 
STRV relative to 2008/09. 
 
$  Production of beet sugar is projected at a record 5.086 million STRV, as harvested area is 
assumed to expand about 28 percent relative to 2008/09. This expansion is due to high sugarbeet 
returns relative to alternative crops in all producing areas. In some cases, production is limited by 
existing sugarbeet slicing capacity. Assuming normal weather, cane sugar production increases  
by 224,000 STRV in 2008/09 to 3.714 million STRV in 2009/10. This increase reflects a return 
to trend yield growth and only a small increase in sugarcane area harvested for sugar of 1.4 
percent.  
 
$  Imports are projected to total 2.067 million STRV. Tariff rate quota (TRQ) imports are assumed 
to total the minimum under World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, other current trade 
agreements, and additional specialty sugar.  Other program imports are projected based on trends. 
 Other imports are projected from trends (molasses and syrups). Sugar imports from Mexico are 
projected at 400,000 STRV. 
 
$  Deliveries for human consumption are projected at 10.527 million STRV, an increase of 0.3 
percent, far less than projected population growth of 0.9 percent in the United States and Puerto 
Rico. 
 
$  Ending stocks total 1.066 million STRV, the difference between projected total supply (11.933 
million STRV) and total use (10.867 million STRV). The implied ending fiscal year stocks-to-use 
ratio is 9.8  percent. No assumptions are made regarding acquisitions or disbursements of sugar 
by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), either in 2008/09 or in 2009/10. 
                                                 
1Approved by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for Sugar.  
 
 
       2009 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Sweeteners Session 
                            February 23, 2009 
                   
                      U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ 
====================================================================== 
                        :           :       2008/09      :  2009/10 
      Item              : 2007/08   :====================:============ 
                        :           : January   February : Projection 
====================================================================== 
                        :           1,000 short tons, raw value 
: 
Beginning stocks        :   1,799       1,656     1,660       1,066 
Production 2/           :   8,152       7,800     7,715       8,800 
  Beet sugar            :   4,721       4,225     4,225       5,086 
  Cane sugar            :   3,431       3,575     3,490       3,714 
   Florida              :   1,645       1,766     1,670       1,897 
   Hawaii               :     182         225       225         241 
   Louisiana            :   1,446       1,400     1,425       1,392 
   Texas                :     158         184       170         184 
Imports                 :   2,620       2,496     2,531       2,067 
  TRQ 3/                :   1,354       1,511     1,496       1,357 
  Other program 4/      :     565         345       345         300 
  Other 5/              :     701         640       690         410 
    Mexico              :     694         630       680         400 
     Total supply       :  12,571      11,952    11,906      11,933 
                        : 
Exports 2/              :     203         170       130         130 
Deliveries 2/           :  10,773      10,710    10,710      10,737 
  Food                  :  10,571      10,500    10,500      10,527 
  Other 6/              :     202         210       210         210 
Miscellaneous 7/        :     -65           0         0           0 
     Total use          :  10,911      10,880    10,840      10,867 
Ending stocks           :   1,660       1,072     1,066       1,066           
                          : 
Stocks to use ratio     :    15.2         9.9       9.8         9.8 
====================================================================== 
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1.  Historical data are from FSA,  
"Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census 
Bureau).  2/ Projections for 2009/10 are from the Interagency Commodity Estimates 
Committee for sugar. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late 
entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which 
they actually arrived.  The 2009/10 TRQ assumes minimum imports under current 
trade agreements with shortfall (100,000) and additional specialty sugar 
(80,000).  4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol 
programs.  5/ Includes high-tier, Mexico, and other.  6/ Transfers to sugar-
containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ 
Residual statistical discrepancies. 
 

2009/10 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use

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