research

How would farmers in the French Alps adapt their systems to different drought and socio-economic context scenarios?

Abstract

International audienceThe French Alps are considered as an area that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Several droughts have already occurred since 2003. In order to assess the ability of farming systems to adapt to future drought events, we developed prospective scenarios combining different climatic and socio-economic contexts. Four scenarios were defined based on (i) prospective studies conducted at national and international levels, and (ii) a participatory approach with various stakeholders to transcribe these scenarios at a local level. Farmers and shepherds in the Vercors and Oisans massifs were surveyed in order to understand how they had reacted to previous droughts, and how they would plan to react to our scenarios. Results show first that the farmers would strive to continue their activity in each scenario, taking advantage of the flexibility of their farming systems, as in previous years. However, in the most pessimistic climatic scenario, they would also decrease the size of their herds. Depending on the socio-economic hypothesis, they would adopt farm structural changes (farm processing activities, direct selling, etc.), or look for part-time non-agricultural jobs. Three types of strategies were identified, depending on the farmers' objectives and adjustments. Finally, public policies to accompany these changes are considered

    Similar works