Ven, Karin H. J. Van Der (Dogus Author)The role of future exploration as a type of expertise in the policy-making process has increased in the past decades. Research about the relationship between future exploration and policy-making is largely limited to national policy-making processes, and there has not been much research of the European Union in this context. The aim of this empirical study is to provide insights about future exploration and policy-making in the European Union structures. Its main focus is on the Turkey-EU accession dossier; a topical issue on the European agenda today, as well as one with certain presumed orientation towards the future, namely Turkish membership. On the basis of the Turkey-EU dossier, closely related to EU enlargement policy at large, the ambition of this study is to derive meaningful conclusions for the wider realm of European policy-making. The study focuses both on the formal (institutionalized) methods of future exploration, as well as the informal ways in which the future plays a role in European policy making. Qualitative methods are employed to detect and analyse relevant policy-documents from the European Parliament, European Commission, and Council, as well as those from their subunits dedicated to enlargement policy. In addition, an inquiry of external future explorative bodies in the field of Turkey-EU relations is made to contribute to a comprehensive view of the existence of future explorations, as well as their role in policy-making. Interviews with three officials, active in the EU-Turkey policy-making process in different ways, serve to complement the analysis. Theoretical insights in relation to expertise and policy-making, as well as the more specific field future exploration and policy-making are employed to position the findings within their proper field. The realization that future exploration plays a very limited role in policy making regarding the Turkey-EU accession dossier is among the most important fınding of this study in relation to the formal role of future explorations in the EU. Furthermore, the practice of future exploration seems to be closely intertwined with the actual policy-making process, and the involvement of external agencies is marginal. About the more in formal relationship between future exploration and policy-making, it can be said in this dossier, the EU seeks to plan its future rather than explore it, primarily by establishing objectives and creating policy for the long-term.PREFACE, I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, II -- LIST OF FIGURES, VII -- INTRODUCTION, 1 -- 1. EXPERTISE AND POLICY-MAKING, 5 -- 2. FUTURE EXPLORATION AND POLICY-MAKING, 12 -- 2.1. What is future exploration?, 12 -- 2.2. The (potential) role of future exploration in policy-making, 15 -- 2.3. Challenges of future exploration in policy-making, 16 -- 2.4. Who explores the future?, 19 -- 2.5. Prior insights, 20 -- 2.6. Conclusion, 22 -- 3. EU ENLARGEMENT, 23 -- 3.1. A special kind of policy, 23 -- 3.2. Why enlarge?, 24 -- 3.3. Process and players, 25 -- 3.4. Challenges of enlargement, 32 -- 3.5. Conclusion, 33 -- 4. THE TURKISH ACCESSION DOSSIER, 35 -- 4.1. Chronology and important documents, 35 -- 4.2. The ' promise' of membership, 43 -- 4.3. The future, 44 -- 4.4. Challenges and key issues, 45 -- 4.5. Attitudes, 53 -- 4.6. Conclusion, 54 -- 5. METHODOLOGY, 56 -- 5.1. Research questions, 56 -- 5.2. Link to existing theory, 56 -- 5.3. The case study, 57 -- 5.4. Definitions, 59 -- 5.5. Research methodology, 59 -- 5.5. l. Research step 1, 60 -- 5.5.2. Research step 2, 71 -- 5.5.3. Research step 3: Interviews, 74 -- 6. FINDINGS-P ART 1, 78 -- 6.1. Findings according to institution, 78 -- 6.1. l. European Commission, 78 -- 6.1.2. European Council, 79 -- 6.1.3. European Parliament, 80 -- 6.2. Category A, 81 -- 6.3. Commonalities in categories B and C, 82 -- 6.4. Category B, 85 -- 6.4. l. Focal points, 85 -- 6.4.2. Anticipation and planning, 89 -- 6.5. Category C, 102 -- 6.6. Thinking about the future, 111 -- 6.7. The role of previous enlargements, 113 -- 6.8. Thinking about Turkey when thinking about the future, 114 -- 6.9. Political vs. economic criteria, 115 -- 6.10. Conclusions, 116 -- 7. FINDINGS-PART 2, 118 -- 7. l. Meeting documents, 118 -- 7.2. Awareness, 120 -- 7.3. EU Internal advisory bodies, 122 -- 7.3.1. Economic and Social Committee, 122 -- 7.3.2. The Committee ofthe Regions, 123 -- 7.3.3. The Forward Studies Unit and the Bureau of European Policy Advisers, 124 -- 7.4. External agencies, 128 -- 7.4. l. Independent Commission on Turkey, 128 -- 7.4.2. Center for European Policy Studies, 129 -- 7.4.3. Centre for European Reform, 133 -- 7.4.4. The Centre, 133 -- 7.4.5. The European Policy Centre, 134 -- 7.4.6. The Bertelsmann Foundation, 134 -- 7.5. Conclusions, 135 -- 8. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION, 137 -- 8.1. Summary of most relevant findings, 137 -- 8.2. The research objectives and additional questions, 138 -- 8.3. Possible reasons for limited use of future exploration, 144 -- 8.4. Potential, 149 -- 8.5. Methodological reflection, 151 -- 8.6. Final remarks, 152 -- BIBLIOGRAPHY, 153 -- ANNEX-LIST OF DOCUMENTS ANALYZED, 16
