Is Inflation Persistence Over?

Abstract

We analyze inflation persistence in several industrial and emerging countries in the recent past by estimating reduced-form models of inflation dynamics. We select a very representative group of 23 industrial and 17 emerging economies. Our sample period is comprised of quarterly data and starts in the first quarter of 1995. Our results show that inflation persistence is low and stable for all countries in our sample. It seems to be lower in industrial relative to emerging countries. Finally, even countries that have had “hyperinflation” experience in the recent past showed low levels of inflation persistence, albeit apparently higher than the other countries in our sample.