Turkiye'de Istikrarsiz Buyumenin Var Modelleri Ile Analizi (1991.1-2004.3)

Abstract

Unstable growth process has been observed in Turkish economy. This process has started 1980 and has increased after 1990. The aim of this study is to investigate resources of unstable growth. Quarterly data between 1991.1-2004.3 has been analysed. As a result of stationary review, variables have not been seen as a stationary at same degree. Thus they have been examined with VAR model. According to results of inpulse-response and variance decomposition analysis, effective variables are psbr, current deficit and interest rate. We can say that the most effective variable is interest rate.Unstable growth rate, stationarity, Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, inpulse-response analysis,variance decomposition, Granger causality test, CUSUM test, interest rate