Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance and yield enhancing traits in Sorghum with climate change at selected sites in India and West, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 4

Abstract

Climate change will alter growing conditions of sorghum crop in semi-arid tropical areas of the world. This will require developing high yielding cultivars that are able to perform better under drought and heat stress and with maturity durations to match the water availability period of target sites. The CSM-CERES-Sorghum model was used to quantify the potential benefits, in current and future climates, of incorporating crop maturity duration, yield enhancing, drought and heat tolerance traits in the commonly grown cultivar types at two sites (Akola and Indore) in India and one site (Samanko) in Mali, West Africa. Decreasing crop maturity duration by 10% decreased yields at all the three sites. Whereas, increasing crop maturity by 10% increased yield up to 12% at Akola and 9% each at Indore and Samanko. Increasing yield potential of the baseline, short and longer duration cultivars by increasing RUE (radiation use efficiency), G1 (scale for relative leaf size) and G2 (scale for partitioning of assimilates to the panicle) coefficients increased the grain yield to varying degree. This yield increase for the longer duration cultivar was 11 to 18% at Akola, 17 to 19% at Indore and 6 to 7% at Samanko in current and future climates of the sites. At the three sites the yield gains were larger by incorporating drought tolerance than heat tolerance trait in current climate, however, with climate change the yield gains due to heat tolerance increased trait increased especially at the Akola site. Net benefit of incorporating both drought and heat tolerance traits increased up to 17% at Akola, 9% at Indore and 7% at Samanko with climate change. It is concluded from this study that different combination of traits will be needed to increase and sustain productivity of sorghum in current and future agro-climates of the target sites and that the CSM-CERES-Sorghum model for sorghum can be used to quantify benefits of incorporating such plant traits