Albert Mafusire

Bedingar, Toubamatingar

Kouakou, Koua Louis

English

Research Papers in Economics

        The African Development Bank Group 
      Chief Economist Complex 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Content: 
 
1-  Introduction 
 
2-  Current Food Situation in 
the Sahel region 
 
3-   Increased Vulnerability to 
Food  Insecurity  in  the 
Sahel 
 
4-  Responses  to  the  Food 
Situation  in  the  Sahel 
Region 
 
5-  Conclusion 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unfavorable  weather  conditions  in 
some of the Sahel countries in 2009 
led  to  significant  declines  in  cereal 
production.  Compared  to  2008,  the 
decline in production in 2009 ranged 
from  11%  in  Chad  to  an  alarming 
30%  in  Niger.  This  situation  has 
effectively  developed  into  a  new 
Sahelian food crisis, setting in against 
the backdrop of relatively high global 
food prices. Despite a huge drop from 
their  peak  in  mid  2008,  global  food 
prices  stabilized  at  above  their  pre-
crisis levels (Annex 1). In particular, 
food prices in some African countries 
failed to adjust to global trends in the 
last months, due largely to structural 
deficits  particularly  poor 
infrastructure,  and  partly  due  to 
market inefficiencies. 
 
The immense geographical challenge 
of  most  Sahelian  countries  – 
landlocked;  low,  variable  and 
unpredictable  rainfall;  and  marginal 
soil  conditions  –  limits  the  food 
1 - Introduction 
production potential and aggravates the 
cost  of  trade,  including  food  imports. 
With these geographical limitations and 
inadequate  infrastructure,  Sahelian 
countries  grapple  with  very  high 
transportation  costs,  not  only  for 
transporting  farm  inputs  to  high 
potential  areas  but  also  food  from 
surplus  to  deficit  regions.  Thus,  food 
prices are subject to aberrant seasonal 
fluctuations  that  do  not  necessarily 
conform to global trends, with relative 
food  prices  in  landlocked  countries 
generally  higher  than  in  coastal 
countries in the same sub-region. 
 
This brief highlights the unfolding food 
crisis in the Sahelian region. A detailed 
assessment  of  the  food  situation  in 
general  is  presented  with  a  particular 
focus on the cereals market conditions 
and  the  vulnerability  of  countries  to 
food  insecurity.  Country  responses  to 
the  situation  and  actions  from  the 
international  community  are  also 
briefly reviewed and discussed. 
Commodities Brief 
Volume 1, issue 1 
14 June 2010 
 
Update on the Food Situation in the Sahelian 
Countries
1 
 
 
1 Prepared by the following staff:  A. Mafusire (a.mafusire@afdb.org, Tel: +216 7110 2521),  
L. Kouakou (k.l.kouakou@afdb.org, Tel +216 7110 3058), and T.Bedingar (t.bedingar@afdb.org,  
Tel +216 7110 2279) 
    
 
  Mthuli Ncube 
  m.ncube@afdb.org 
  +216 7110 2062 
 
  Charles Leyeka Lufumpa 
  c.lufumpa@afdb.org 
  +216 7110 2175 
 [Type text] 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 2  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
“The decline in 
cereals production in 
the region has driven 
prices way above their 
2008 levels for the 
same periods.” 
The food supply situation in the Sahel 
can be described as worrisome to say 
the  least.  The  decline  in  cereals 
production  in  the  region  has  driven 
prices way above their 2008 levels for 
the  same  periods.  In  Ouagadougou 
(Burkina  Faso)  in  April  2010  for 
instance,  coarse  cereal  prices  were 
28% higher than their mid-2008 levels. 
Similarly,  prices  are  observed  in 
Bamako  (Mali)  and  Niamey  (Niger), 
with respective price increases of 27% 
and  12%  over  the  same  period.  It  is 
also  observed  that  better  food 
availability in coastal countries in the 
region  has  resulted  in  cereals  trade 
between coastal Sahelian countries and 
the others, as traders take advantage of 
higher  prices  arising  from  cereal 
deficits in the affected countries. 
 
The  Food  and  Agricultural 
Organization  (FAO)  appraises  serious 
food deficits in the region as follows: 
203  thousand  tons  in  Burkina  Faso, 
114  thousand  in  Chad,  37  thousand 
tons in Niger, 85 thousand tons in Cape 
Verde  and  700  thousand  tons  in 
Senegal. The total cereal deficit in the 
entire  Sahel  region  stands  about  1.6 
million  tons  (Annex  3a),  which 
translates into about US$ 503 million 
2- Current Food Situation in the Sahel Region 
  to cover the import bill (Annex 3b)
2. 
The relative severity of the shortages 
also  differs  across  countries,  with 
Niger’s  cereal  deficit  in  value  terms 
having  more  than  doubled  from 
US$73 million in 2007/08 to US$ 155 
million  in  2008/09.  Similarly, 
Mauritania’s  cereal  deficit  has 
increased from US$ 90 million to US$ 
120  million  over  the  same  period, 
threatening the lives of some 5 million 
people in Niger alone.  
 
The  severity  of  the  situation  is 
captured  in  the  FAO  May  2010 
report
3, which cautioned that about 8 
million  people  are  at  risk  of  food 
insecurity in five Sahelian countries
4, 
with about 63% living in Niger. This 
is happening at a precarious moment 
as  Africa  starts  to  regain  the  lost 
growth momentum imposed by a crisis 
they did not create. While the need to 
meet  critical  food  demands  and  to 
provide  social  safety  nets  is 
recognized,  the  macroeconomic 
fundamentals of the affected countries 
were significantly eroded by the recent 
financial and economic crisis, making 
them even more vulnerable in terms of 
weakened  capacity  to  pay  for  food 
imports.  
 
 
“…about 8 million 
people are at risk of 
food insecurity in five 
Sahelian countries
4, 
with about 63% living 
in Niger.” 
2Cereals  in  the  analysis  include  rice,  wheat  and  coarse  grains.  Prices  obtained  from  IMF  Primary 
Commodities Online Database. 
3 FAO (2010),  The Food Situation is of Grave Concern in Parts of the Sahel, Notably in Niger, Global 
Information And Early Warning System On Food And Agriculture , Special Alert No. 329 
4 Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. 
 
 
 
 [Type text] 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 3  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Table 1: Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2008 - 2011 
 
 Country 
  
Current Account % GDP 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Fiscal Balance % GDP 
2008  2009  2010  2011  2008  2009  2010  2011 
Burkina Faso  -11.8  -7.9  -7.4  -6.7  -4.4  -5.6  -4.7  -4.5 
Chad  -10.3  -31.8  -26.7  -22.8  5.2  -10.8  -9.6  -11.6 
Mali  -9.7  -9.1  -11.1  -12.5  -2.2  -0.9  -1.9  -1.9 
Mauritania  -15.9  -17.3  -22.8  -24.1  -7.4  -5.5  -5.1  -6.3 
Niger  -13.6  -15.2  -18.3  -18.5  6  -1.2  -0.4  -0.6 
     
             Source : African Economic Outlook (2010) 
 
 
 
 
 
The  vulnerability  to  the  current  food 
crisis  in  some  Sahelian  countries  has 
been  worsened  by  weakened 
macroeconomic  fundamentals,  notably 
fiscal and current account deficits (Table 
1). Food scarcity in these food importing 
countries  is  particularly  exacerbated  by 
their  inability  to  finance  the  food 
imports, reflected in the widening twin-
deficits,  current  account  and  fiscal. 
Given these deficits, the affected Sahel 
countries  (Burkina  Faso,  Chad,  Mali, 
Mauritania  and  Niger)  require  much 
more external assistance to alleviate the 
food situation. Food inflation pressure in 
the region has also not abated since the 
last global food crisis of 2008 (Annex 2), 
reflecting the persistent food shortages in 
the region. 
 
Additional  risks  associated  with  food 
crisis in the Sahelian region relate to land 
grabs, both by foreign governments and 
private  companies,  displacing  local 
3- Increased Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in the Sahel 
 
“Given these deficits, 
the affected Sahel 
countries (Burkina 
Faso, Chad, Mali, 
Mauritania and Niger) 
require much more 
external assistance to 
alleviate the food 
situation. Food 
inflation pressure in 
the region has also 
not abated since the 
last global food crisis 
of 2008 (Annex 2), 
reflecting the 
persistent food 
shortages in the 
region.” 
populations  and  thus  increasing  land-
use  pressures.  Poor  local  farmers 
without capital and investment options 
for  land  improvement  are  at  risk  of 
being  squeezed  out  to  marginal  and 
less  productive  land,  with  subsequent 
increase  in  poverty.  In  Mali  for 
instance, over 160,000 hectares of rice 
land have been annexed by foreigners. 
Local food security implications would 
be determined by whether such rice is 
produced  for  local  consumption  or 
export.  Similar  developments  are 
observed  in  the  Sudan  and  in 
Mauritania. 
 
Increased cereal trade between coastal 
and landlocked Sahelian countries has 
also  been  reported,  as  traders  take 
advantage of higher prices in the cereal 
deficit regions. However, supplies from 
these countries remain inadequate and 
would  have  to  be  met  by  significant 
supplies from outside the region. 
 
 
   
“Additional risks 
associated with food 
crisis in the Sahelian 
region relate to land 
grabs, both by foreign 
governments and 
private companies, 
displacing local 
populations and thus 
increasing land-use 
pressures.” [Type text] 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 4  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Back Page Story Headline 
 
Governments in the Sahelian region, with the support 
of  development  partners  have  initiated  numerous 
programs  of  assistance  to  remedy  the  situation 
(Annex  4).  In  all  the  five  most  affected  countries 
(Niger,  Mali,  Chad,  Burkina  Faso  and  Mauritania), 
the  emergency  food  assistance  and  support  for 
increased  production  in  the  form  of  seed  packs 
constitute the dominant responses. Other government 
interventions  include  food  subsidies,  safety  nets, 
stock  draw-downs  and  price  controls.  In  Niger, 
responses  included  food-for-work  programs,  release 
of  stock  cereals  at  subsidized  prices,  provision  of 
seeds,  and  distribution  of  livestock  feeds.  Mali’s 
responses focus more on increasing production of rice 
and  livestock  while  also  trying  to  address  the 
emergency needs. 
Chad  has  responded  through  free  distribution,  or 
subsidized  sale  of  about  23,250  tons  of  its  cereal 
stocks, 10,350 tons of cereal seeds and 6,000 tons of 
livestock feeds. In addition, the country is importing 
30,000 tons of cereals to replenish stocks. Also, the 
U.N.  World  Food  Programme  (WFP)  has  approved 
food assistance to nearly 800,000 people in parts of 
Chad that have been hit by drought. 
 
Similarly,  Burkina  Faso  and  Mauritania  are 
drawing  down  cereal  stocks  and  agro-industrial 
byproducts  at  subsidized  prices  with  a  view  to 
stabilizing  food  prices.  In  addition,  Mauritania  is 
targeting the most vulnerable population where it has 
distributed about 7,000 tons in emergency food. 
 
 
 
 
4- Responses to the Food Situation in the Sahel Region 
  Mauritania is reported to have placed restrictions on 
imports  from  neighboring  countries  (Senegal  and 
Mali) in spite of the prevailing precarious food crisis. 
Such action has negatively impacted food availability, 
leading to food price escalation. 
 
In  Niger,  the  WFP  plans  to  provide  food  to  an 
additional  850,000  people.  The  European 
Commission  has  also  allocated  Euro  24  million  in 
support  of  the  affected  populations  in  the  Sahel 
countries. However, pledges are short of requirements 
with the UN operations being only 30% funded as of 
early April 2010. 
 
Meanwhile, the governments of Niger and Chad have 
submitted emergency assistance requests to the Bank 
which  are  being  processed  by  the  Regional 
Departments  and  will  be  submitted  to  the  Board 
before the end of June 2010. 
 
 [Type text] 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 5  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The emerging food crisis in the Sahel is a reminder of 
the need for greater action by governments and their 
development  partners.  Focused  development  of  the 
agriculture  sector  in  Africa  in  general,  and  in  the 
perennially  vulnerable  Sahel  countries in  particular, 
will reduce the risks faced by the region. 
 
 
 
 
Furthermore,  the  affected  countries  are  facing  a 
deteriorating  macroeconomic  environment  that  has 
the potential to trigger unrest and political instability 
as was experienced in 2008. In particular opposition 
to land grabs by local populations may require careful 
attention  to  foreign  investment  agreements  in 
agriculture,  to  ensure  that  they  do  not  increase 
domestic food insecurity. 
 
 
 
 
5- Conclusion 
 [Type text] 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 6  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
                          Annex 1: Monthly Commodity Prices, 2007 - 2010 
 
         Source: AfDB Statistics Department and World Bank. 
 
 
 
 
 
                        Annex 2: Harmonized Food Price Index (2006 – 2010) 
 
       Source: AfDB Statistics Department. 
 [Type text] 
 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 7  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
 
                                       Annex 3a : Cereal Balance (Values in thousand tones) (2008/09) 
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thousand tones 
Burkina Faso  3,627  5  165  180  3,617  3,162  658  3,820  -203 
Cape Verde  7  2  3  0  12  96  1  97  -85 
Chad  1,575  25  149  155  1,594  1,414  294  1,708  -114 
Gambia  310  10  0  58  262  285  51  336  -74 
Guinea-Bissau  207  13  4  7  217  248  22  270  -53 
Mali  4,639  19  0  347  4,311  3,198  719  3,917  394 
Mauritania  164  85  25  96  178  477  108  585  -407 
Niger  3,514  10  255  20  3,759  3,453  676  4,129  -370 
Senegal  1,874  156  95  51  2,074  2,223  517  2,740  -666 
Total Sahel  15,917  325  696  914  16,024  14,556  3,046  17,602  -1,578 
Source: AfDB Statistics Department and FAO. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 [Type text] 
 
 
 
   Commodities Brief                                                                                                                                                              Page 8  of 9 
 
 
 
 
  
                                        Annex 3b: Cereal Balance  (Values in US$ million)(2008/09) 
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USD Million 
Burkina Faso  688  1  27  30  687  651  122  773  -89  -86 
Cape Verde  1  1  1  0  3  33  0  33  -23  -31 
Chad  315  6  27  26  321  277  55  332  -12  -11 
Gambia  84  5  0  24  65  91  12  103  -39  -37 
Guinea-Bissau  98  7  1  3  102  117  9  126  -14  -23 
Mali  1,425  4  0  99  1,330  877  217  1,094  11  236 
Mauritania  55  27  6  48  40  134  26  160  -90  -120 
Niger  618  5  46  3  666  705  116  821  -73  -155 
Senegal  518  70  20  8  600  769  106  876  -192  -276 
Total Sahel  3,803  126  127  242  3,815  3,654  664  4,318  -521  -503 
Source: AfDB Statistics Department and FAO. 
  
                               Annex 4: Responses to the Food Price Crisis 
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Chad  •  •        •  •  •          
Mali  •                 •          
Mauritania  •                •     •    
Niger  •  •  •     •  •  •         
Source: AfDB Statistics Department and FAO. 
               
 
                                         Annex 5: Cereal Balance of selected Sahelian Countries 
Cereal Balance by Country, 2007/08-2008/09 
(Million USD)
-600
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-200
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0
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Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Total Sahel
2007/08 2008/09
 
                     Source: AfDB Statistics Department. 
 
Commodities Brief                                                                                                              Page 9 of 9 
 

Commodities Brief-Update on the Food Situation in the Sahelian Countries

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Commodities Brief-Update on the Food Situation in the Sahelian Countries

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