A new approach to the analysis and rating Ecuadorian Cooperative System

Abstract

This document exposes a EWS that is based on two models, the first corresponds to a full econometric model such as the Logistics and the second is a financial model based on OVT for the KMV model. Both models are based on financial indicators CAMEL evaluation methodology for the Cooperative System of Ecuador, so that they become an easy tool for interpretation by the entities that comprise this system as well as the regulator and supervisor, giving rise to easily identify financial crisis phenomena. The models exposed are considered inside the MPT where CAMEL is a traditional finance valuation model and Logit & KMV are new tools like a EWS. Hence, the three models CAMEL, KMV and Logit, are placed to the Ecuadorian cooperative reality in order to establish a rating of each entity that labors in the Cooperative System headed for analyze its current financial situation and identify possible vulnerability of the system.Modelo de Evaluación CAMEL, Sistema de Alertas Tempranas, Modelo Logit Dicotómico, Matriz de Transición, Modelo Merton, Cadenas de Markow, Valoración de Opciones, Enfoque de Señales.