System Dynamic Modelling of the Strategic Development of Agriculture

Abstract

In the paper two main development models are shown: agriculture industry development model based on the estimations of experts (model of experts) and agriculture science development model. The experts of the Republic of Latvia Ministry of Agriculture take part in the preparation of the model data, and the results of the models are used in Latvia agriculture industry and science development strategy. The model results show that it is possible to reach profit per employee as the EU average. For this the number of employees have to diminish not less than two times. The level of profit for living in the countries lifts to average EU level. It is possible to develop the alternative agricultural production also. The above mentioned can be achieved only along with comprehensive developments of the countries: education, infrastructure, technologies, etc. Agriculture industry development is constrained to the potential of scientific research in the industry. Furthermore, the number of scientists is declining. Only increasing the investments in technologies by five times in comparison with the current level, the decline in the numbers of scientists in agriculture industry can be stopped.lauksaimniecības ekonomika, stratēģija, sistēmdinamika, modelēšana, ražība, sējumu platība