In spite of some superficial success in achieving its overall global target, there has been much disillusionment with the progress on climate change since the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997. The key problems in addressing GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol have been the incomplete coverage across countries and lack of credibility. While significantly more onerous reduction commitments should be expected and required of developed countries in the name of economic fairness, GHG emissions must also be capped effectively in developing countries.Clean Development Mechanism, Copenhagen Accord, greenhouse gas emissions, Kyoto Protocol, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy,

Gaisford, James D.

English

Research Papers in Economics

Volume 11 Number 1, 2010/p. 242-252              esteyjournal.com 
 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy  242 
 
 
 
Technical Annex 
 
From Kyoto to Copenhagen: Meeting the Climate 
Change Challenge 
 
James Gaisford 
Professor, Department of Economics, University of Calgary 
 
This document is the technical annex to the full paper “From Kyoto to Copenhagen: 
Meeting the Climate Change Challenge” which is available separately. 
The Estey Centre Journal of 
International Law 
and Trade Policy   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    243
A1. Comparative Data 
This part of the Technical Annex provides cross-country data comparisons on a variety 
of key variables in support of the analysis in the paper. The underlying data on GHG 
emissions is from the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate 
Change) website while the data on CO
2 emissions and fossil-fuel use is from the 
emissions from the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) online database. 
The data on GDP and population is from the World Bank’s World Development 
Indicators (WDI) database. Figures 1 and 2 show the reduction commitments of the 
Annex-B countries and their actual performance toward meeting those targets over the 
period from the 1990 base year through 2007.  Figure 1 includes the impact of 
changes in land use while Figure 2 does not. Figure 3 shows increases in fossil-fuel 
use across the Annex-B countries from the inception of the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 
through 2007, while Figure 4 shows similar data from some key Developing Countries 
and provides world comparisons. Figure 5 shows the amounts and shares of CO
2 
emissions for Developed Countries as group, Transition Countries and Developing 
Countries. Figures 6 and 7 show per-capita CO
2 emissions for Annex-B Countries on 
the one hand and Developing Countries on the other, while Figures 8 and 9 show per-
capita GDPs. Figures 10 and 11 show overall CO
2 emissions for Annex-B and 
Developing Countries respectively.  Figures 12 and 13 show the CO
2 emissions 
intensities or ratios of CO
2 emissions to real GDP. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    244
Figure 1.  Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Annex-B Countries: Broad Results 
Percentage Commitments and Performance to 2007 Relative to 1990 Base Year   
Including the Effects of Land-Use, Land Use Change and Forestry on GHG Emissions 
Figure 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Annex-B Countries: Narrow Results 
Percentage Commitments and Performance to 2007 Relative to 1990 Base Year  
Excluding the Effects of Land-Use, Land Use Change and Forestry on GHG 
Emissions 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change) “GHG data from UNFCCC.”
Source: UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention 
on Climate Change) “GHG data from UNFCCC.” 
   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    245
Figure 3. Fossil-Fuel Consumption of Transition and Developed Countries 
Percentage Increase, 1998-2007 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: United States, Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. 
 
Figure 4. Fossil-Fuel Consumption Developing Countries 
Percentage Increase, 1998-2007 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: United States, Energy Information Administration (EIA) database.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    246
Figure 5. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions 
Billions of Metric Tons 
 
 
Source: United, States Energy Information Administration (EIA) database 
Figure 6. Per-Capita CO2 Emissions of Developed and Transition Countries 
Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Capita
Source: Calculations based on data from United States, Energy Information Administration 
(EIA) database and the World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) database.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    247
Figure 7. Per-Capita CO2 Emissions of Developing Countries 
Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Capita 
 
 
 
Figure 8. Per-Capita Income of Transition and Developed Countries 
Purchasing Power Parity GDP Conversions; 2005 International Dollars 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Calculations based on data from United States, Energy Information 
Administration (EIA) database and the World Bank, World Development 
Indicators (WDI) database. 
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) database.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    248
Figure 9. Per-Capita Income of Developing Countries 
Purchasing Power Parity GDP Conversions; 2005 International Dollars 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 10. CO
2 Emissions by Transition and Developed Countries 
Percentage Increases; 1990-2006 and 1998-2006 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: World Bank; World Development Indicators (WDI) database. 
Source: United States, Energy Information Administration (EIA) database.  James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    249
Figure 11. CO
2 Emissions by Developing Countries 
Percentage Increases; 1990-2006 and 1998-2006 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 12. CO2 Intensity of Transition and Developed Countries 
Kilograms of Carbon Dioxide per Constant (2000) US Dollar of GDP 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: United States, Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. 
Source: Calculations based on data from United States, Energy Information Administration 
(EIA) database and the World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) database.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    250
 
Figure 13. CO
2 Intensity of Developing Countries 
Kilograms of Carbon Dioxide per Constant (2000) US Dollar of GDP 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A2. Empirical  Findings 
This part of the Technical Annex examines whether developing countries are dirtier 
than developed countries in terms of CO
2 emissions while controlling for important 
factors such as the size of the country, the types of fossil fuels used, the extent of non-
GHG emitting electricity generation (e.g., nuclear power) and the sector composition 
of the economy.  The underlying data on CO
2 emissions, fossil-fuel use and electricity 
generation is from the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) online 
database.  Meanwhile, the data on population, population density, per-capita GDP, 
GDP, and sector shares in GDP is from the World Bank’s World Development 
Indicators (WDI) database.  
The regression results reported in Table 1 were obtained for a fixed-effects 
regression on an unbalanced panel consisting of 122 countries, 26 years from 1980 to 
2005, and 2376 observations.  Agriculture, services and other industry are treated 
explicitly, while manufacturing is the residual sector.   Likewise natural gas and coal 
Source: Calculations based on data from United States, Energy Information 
Administration (EIA) database and the World Bank, World Development Indicators 
(WDI) database.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    251
are treated explicitly with petroleum as the residual fossil fuel.  The results show 
that  an  increase  in  development,  measured  by  real  per‐capita  income,  is 
associated with a statistically significant decline in the natural logarithm of CO2 
emission intensity, measured CO2 emissions by per dollar of real GDP.  The red 
line in Figure 14 shows the decline in the emissions intensity with rising per-capita 
income for a hypothetical country having the world average sector shares.  Taking 
account of the logarithm scale, for each thousand-dollar increase in GDP, the CO2 
emissions intensity declines by approximately 6.4%.  Figure 14 also shows that the 
emissions intensity would tend to drop rapidly for a 100% agricultural economy or a 
100% manufacturing economy, but it would tend to drop more modestly for a 100% 
other-industry economy or a 100% service economy. 
 
 
Figure 14. CO2 Emissions Intensities versus Per-Capita Income 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Based on the regression results in Table 1; courtesy of David Still.   James Gaisford 
Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy    252
Table 1. Regression Results 
 
  ln (CO2/GDP) 
GDP Per Capita   ‐7.96E‐05 *** 
Agriculture/GDP  ‐2.48E‐03  
(Agriculture/GDP) *(GDP Per Capita) ‐1.79E‐06 ** 
Services/GDP  ‐1.25E‐02 *** 
(Services/GDP) *(GDP Per Capita)  7.75E‐07 *** 
Other Industry/GDP  ‐1.11E‐02 *** 
(Other Industry/GDP) *(GDP Per 
Capita)  4.61E‐07 *** 
(Natural Gas/Fossil Fuel)*(GDP Per 
Capita)   ‐1.80E‐05 ** 
(Coal/Fossil Fuel)*(GDP Per Capita)  2.00E‐06  
% Clean Electricity  ‐4.56E‐03 *** 
(% Clean Electricity)*(GDP Per 
Capita)  ‐4.17E‐08  
Land Per Capita  ‐1.04 *** 
Constant   8.21 *** 
       
Observations 2376 
Countries 122 
Panel Type  Unbalanced 
Random versus Fixed Effects  Fixed 
R‐squared within  0.1426 
R‐squared between  0.2599 
R‐squared overall  0.2009 
 
Source: Regression results courtesy of David Still. 
* significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%. 
 

From Kyoto to Copenhagen: Meeting the Climate Change Challenge

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