Rosegrant, Mark W.

English

Research Papers in Economics

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Baseline Projections: Global Food Markets 
 
 
 
Mark Rosegrant 
Senior Research Fellow, Environmental and Production Technology 
International Food Policy Research Institute 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prepared for 
USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 
 
February 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IFPRI
IMPACT 2000
Baseline Projections: Global Food
MarketsPage 2
IFPRI
Child Malnourishment Trends,
1995-2020
Regional Share of Malnourished Children, 1995 and 
Projected 2020
3% 2%
19%
30%
4%
3%
51%
48%
12%
11%
11% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2020
China
South East Asia
South Asia
WANA
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin AmericaPage 3
IFPRI
Malnourished Children
Malnourished Children, 1995 and Projected 2020
4929 2120
31054 40053
4103
64068
14487
9976
5634
82044
18653
18030
134807
160344
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1995 2020 Region
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nPage 4
IFPRI
Child Malnourishment Trends,
1995-2020
§ No. of malnourished children to decline
16 percent (26 million children)
worldwide.
§ Latin America largest decline at 67
percent, from 5 million to 2 million.
§ Sub-Saharan Africa to increase by 29
percent, from 31 million to 40 million.
§ India to decline by 28 percent, although
still to remain home to 45 million in 2020,
or 33 percent of the world total.Page 5
IFPRI
Daily Per Capita Calorie Availability, 1995 and 2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
WANA
India
S Asia
SE Asia
China
Developed (inc USSR EEur)
Developing (exc Japan)
World
Region
C
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P
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D
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2020
1995Page 6
IFPRI
IMPACT Model Overview
§ 36 countries and regions
§ 16 commodities
• Includes all cereals, soybeans, roots &
tubers, meats, milk, eggs, oils, oilcakes,
and meals
• Model specified as a set of country-
level supply and demand equationsPage 7
IFPRI
IMPACT Model Structure
§ Impact is a partial equilibrium
agricultural sector model with
inter-sectoral linkages.
§ Exogenously introduced shocks in
non-agricultural GDP affect yield
and area/numbers growth through
an inter-sectoral multiplier.Page 8
IFPRI
IMPACT Model Structure
§ Country-level models are linked to
the rest of the world through trade.
§ World food prices are determined
annually at levels that clear
international commodity markets.Page 9
IFPRI
Characteristics of IMPACT
Commodities: Crops (1)
§ Area is a function of crop prices and
irrigation investment.
§ Yield is a function of crop price, input
price, irrigation investment, and
technological change.
• Technological change is estimated
based on agricultural research
investment.Page 10
IFPRI
Characteristics of IMPACT
Commodities: Crops (2)
§ Food demand is a function of
commodity prices, income, and
population.
§ Feed demand is a function of
livestock production, feed prices,
and feeding efficiency.Page 11
IFPRI
Factors Assessed Through
IMPACT Scenario Analysis
§ Changes in population and income
growth.
§ Rate of growth in crop and livestock
yield and production.
§ Agricultural research, irrigation, and
other investment.
§ Price policies for agricultural
commodities.
§ Supply and demand elasticities.
§ Feed ratios / technology.Page 12
IFPRI
Commodity Demand Increases, 1995
to 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Cereals Meats R&T
Developed
Developing 
WorldPage 13
IFPRI
Cereal Demand, 1995 to 2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
 
 
 
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Region
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T
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s
1995
2020
§ Global cereal
demand will increase
39% (690.1 mmt)
from a base demand
of 1776.2 mmt in
1995.
§ Demand in
developing world
will increase 54%
(583.3 mmt).
§ Demand in
developed world will
increase 15% (106.8
mmt).Page 14
IFPRI
Demand Increase for Major
Cereals, 1995 to 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wheat Maize Rice Other Grains All Cereals
Developed (inc USSR EEur)
Developing 
WorldPage 15
IFPRI
Crop Share of 1995 Demand and Demand
Increase in Developing Countries
Crop Share of 1995 Cereal 
Demand
Wheat
30%
Maize
26%
Rice
33%
Other 
Grains
11%
Crop Share in 1995 to 
2020 Cereal Demand 
Increase
Wheat
27%
Maize
37%
Rice
22%
Other 
Grains
14%Page 16
IFPRI
Cereal Demand, 1995 to 2020
§ Maize will lead all cereals with a
worldwide increase of 50% (278.6 mmt),
followed by other grains at 36% (105.8
mmt), rice at 34% (126.5 mmt), and
wheat at 32% (179.1 mmt).
§ Maize, which accounted for 26% of cereal
demand in 1995, will account for 37% of
the cereal demand increase between 1995
and 2020.Page 17
IFPRI
Cereal Demand, 1995 to 2020
§ The developing countries, due
mainly to higher population growth
than the developed world and
growing demand for cereals as feed,
will drive overall cereal demand
growth.
§ Due to its importance as a feed
grain, maize will experience the
greatest demand increases.Page 18
IFPRI
Cereal Demand Breakdown, 1995 and
Future Growth
Breakdown of 1995 
Developing Country Cereal 
Demand
Food
67%
Feed
21%
Other 
Uses
12%
Breakdown of 1995 to 2020 Cereal 
Demand Increase
Food
51%
Feed
37%
Other 
Uses
12%Page 19
IFPRI
Cereal Food Demand, 1995 to 2020
§ Aggregate food demand growth will slow
somewhat from historical trends, mainly
due to the slowing of population growth
rates, particularly in developing
countries.
§ Rapid incomes and urbanization in Asia
will drive declining worldwide per capita
food consumption of maize as consumers
shift to wheat and rice.
§ A secondary consumption shift from rice
to wheat will also occur in wealthier
developing countries.Page 20
IFPRI
Per Capita Cereal Food Demand,
1995 to 2020
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
W
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C
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s Developed
Developing
World
§ Per capita cereal
food demand will
increase 2%
worldwide, with
demand for other
grains increasing 8%,
rice and wheat
increasing 2%, and
maize declining 1%.
§ Other grain demand
will decline 17% in
the developed world,
but will increase 11%
in the developing
world.Page 21
IFPRI
Regional Share Cereal Demand
Increases, 1995-2020
China
25%
Other Asia
14%
Developed
15%
India
13%
Other Developing
33%Page 22
IFPRI
Cereal Demand Breakdown, 1995 to
2020
§ Due to rising meat demand in the
developing world, cereal feed
demand will increase more rapidly
than food demand.
§ In 1995, cereal feed demand
accounted for 21% of total cereal
demand.  Yet cereal feed demand
will account 37% of the total
increase in cereal demand between
1995 and 2020.Page 23
IFPRI
Regional Share of Meat Demand
Increase, 1995 to 2020
India
4%
China
41%
Other Asia
13%
Developed 
15%
Other 
Developing
27%Page 24
IFPRI
Cereal Production Growth
Breakdown, 1995 to 2020
§ Yield growth will
drive production
increases worldwide
between 1995 and
2020.
§ Africa will be the
only continent in
which area increases
contribute to more
than 30% of total
production increases.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Growth due
to Yield
Increases
Growth due
to Area
IncreasesPage 25
IFPRI
Regional Cereal Production
Breakdown, 1995 and 2020
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Latin
America
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
WANA India South Asia
(exc. India)
SE Asia E Asia (exc
Japan)
Developed
(inc USSR
EEur)
1995
2020Page 26
IFPRI
Cereal Yield Growth Rates, Historical
and Projected
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
WANA
South Asia
SE Asia
E Asia (exc Japan)
Developed (inc USSR EEur)
P
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Y
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(1982-1995)
(1995-2020)Page 27
IFPRI
Cereal Prices, 1995 and 2020
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Other Grains
Soybeans
    All Cereals
C
r
o
p
s
$
/
m
t
World prices 1995
World prices 2020Page 28
IFPRI
Meat Prices, 1995 and 2020
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Beef
Pork
Sheep&Goat
Poultry
    All Meat
M
e
a
t
$
/
m
t
World prices 1995
World prices 2020Page 29
IFPRI
Net Livestock Exports from Developed
to Developing Countries
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Beef
Pigmeat
Sheep&Goat
Poultry
All Meats
Livestock Product
M
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M
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T
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s
1995
2020
§ Rising meat demand
in the developing
world will be met by
substantial increases
in meat imports from
developed world
producers.
§ Developing world
meat imports will
increase from 0.8
mmt to 6.6 mmt.Page 30
IFPRI
Worldwide Cereal Trade, 1995 and
2020
80
55
16
22
172
129
91
22
36
278
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Other Grains
Total
M
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T
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s
1995
2020
§ Net cereal imports
into the developing
world from the
developed world will
expand rapidly.
§ Asia will account for
70% of the increase
in cereal imports,
and China alone will
account for 54% of
the Asian total.Page 31
IFPRI
Regional Production Breakdown,
1995 and 2020
§ Worldwide cereal production will
increase 690.1 mmt between 1995
and 2020.
§ Regional shares of worldwide
production will increase slightly or
remain constant in all developing
countries.  The developed world’s
share of worldwide cereal
production will decline from 45.7%
to 40.8%.

BASELINE PROJECTIONS: GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

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