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THE ECONOMICS OF GRAIN PRODUCER CARTELS
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Abstract
The objective of this study is to measure economic payoffs from a grain cartel. Two basic approaches to extract economic rents are considered: (i) Mandatory supply controls to restrict production and raise grain price, and (2) export price discrimination using export taxes or subsidies. The economic impacts of different producer cartel scenarios were estimated using a long-term, nine-region world trade simulation model incorporating the assumptions of neoclassical trade theory. The SWOPSIM program was used to write the model equations. Economic Research Service trade data for 1989 were used to initialize the model. Results reflect long-run changes from 1989conditions and are at 1989 general price levels. The model simultaneously estimated outcomes in markets for nine commodities: beef, pork, poultry meat, wheat, corn, coarse grains (other than corn), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed), oilmeal, and sugar. Cross-effects among commodities and input-output relationships between field crop and livestock production are accounted for by substitution and complementary coefficients in behavioral equations. Countries and groups of countries included in the model are Australia, Canada, the European Community (EC), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the United States (US), Japan, and the rest of the world (ROW). The simulation results report the consequences of restricting only US grain production (wheat, corn, and other coarse grains) from 5 to 20% below the 1989 production level. Grain supply restrictions were presumed to be mandatory, hence taxpayers incurred no additional outlays over those in 1989 . World price increases were modest for wheat, but greater for corn and other coarse grains in part because of differences in market share among grains. US consumers of grain and grain products buy less at higher prices and are worse off, as is the country as a whole. Consumer surplus falls nearly 2billionwhengrainsupplyisreduced207 billion in rents they collect from current programs. It seems unlikely that a producer group would risk gains of this size for the prospect of cartel rents a sixth the size or less from international markets. Gains to US producers are less for a wheat cartel than for either the feed grain cartel or for the wheat-feed grain cartel included herein. The unfavorable outcomes originate from the export demand for US wheat made highly elastic by opportunities to substitute feed grain for wheat in production and consumption especially in the long run. That is, a high wheat price and controlled production of wheat encourages importers to produce wheat, cut back feed grain production, and import low-cost feed grains.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,