Does the Relationship Between Mortality and the Business Cycle Vary by the Level of Economic Development? Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between mortality and business cycles within Mexico, where development varies significantly. We exploit this variation by separately analyzing the top ten and bottom ten developed states. We find that while mortality is procyclical nationally and in the top ten states, it is countercyclical in the bottom ten. Further, we show that in the top ten states mortality due to noncommunicable conditions is procyclical, while in the bottom ten mortality due to noncommunicable conditions and infectious and parasitic diseases is countercyclical. This suggests that the relationship between mortality and business cycles may vary by level of development.