The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast - Preliminate for 2009

Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present only the economic preliminate for 2009 of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4].model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations