Gary L. Benjamin

English

Research Papers in Economics

   nt  th   nt r  tr nd 
 n f r l nd v l   
  r l nd v l    h v   xh b t d  n 
pr   d nt d  n r       n r   nt    r .
  t  n  d , th     p  nd  nn  l r t   f  n 
 r      n f r l nd pr     h   b  n  n th 
 rd r  f  6.  p r  nt d r n  th  p  t f v 
   r .  h  v l    f  n     t  ppr    t n   t th  
r t  d  bl    v r  f  r  nd   h lf    r . If th  
r t   f  n r       r  t  p r   t  nt l th   nd  f
th    nt r , l nd   rr ntl  v l  d  t $ ,000
p r   r     ld b    rth $  ,    p r   r   n
th     r 2000. If th  r t    r  t  dr p t   n  
h lf th  l v l  xp r  n  d d r n  th  p  t f v 
   r , th  v l    f th t      l nd    ld r   
t  " nl " $6,  2 p r   r  b  th     r 2000.
 r    nt r p rt    t  f r l nd tr n    
t  n pr      t   v r l th    nd d ll r  p r
  r ,  lth   h n t  n  d  th   v r       
 b  t $4 0 p r   r   t th  b   nn n   f     .
  r l nd      v r  h t r   n     r    r  ,
h   v r.  h     l t — nd th r f r  th 
pr   — f f r l nd v r     r  tl , d p nd n 
 p n r   pr d  t v    p   t , t ll b l t ,
t p  r ph ,   pr v   nt , l   t  n,  t . A
  d  r n    n pr        ft n  xp r  n  d  v n
  th n  h rt d  t n   .   v rth l   , v rt  ll 
 ll  l       f f r l nd h v   ppr    t d r p d 
l   n r   nt    r ,   th   r  pr d  t v   r   
  n r ll  p   n  th  tr nd.   fl  t n  th 
l tt r p  nt,   rv      nd  t d b  th    d r l
    rv    n   f Ch       nd   t  f r l nd
pr      n th  S v nth    tr  t p rt  n   f Il 
l n    h v   ppr    t d  t      p  nd  n 
n  l r t   f 2  p r  nt d r n  th  p  t f v 
   r , f ll   d  l   l  b  22.  p r  nt  nn  l
r t     h  v d  n Ind  n   nd I   . In     
p r   n, th     p  nd  nn  l r t   f  n 
 r      n M  h   n  nd W    n  n— h r 
l nd    l    pr d  t v —h   b  n r   hl   4
p r  nt  v r th  p  t f v     r .
 h    d  pr  d r p d    n   n l nd pr    
h v  h   ht n d th   nt r  t   f b th f r  r 
 nd  nv  t r   n      r n  f r  pr p rt . At
th       t    th  d  ntr nd  n f r   n    
  n        h   r    d   n  rn     n  l nd r 
 nd  nv  t r   b  t  h th r th      nt  
 f th    rr nt b    h     rr  d l nd pr    
b   nd th   n       n r t n    p b l t   f
th  pr p rt . Unf rt n t l , th r    n b  n 
d f n t v  r  p n   t     h   n  rn    th  t
   l  r p r p  t v   f  h t th  f t r  h ld .
  t v    n  th    rr nt l nd b      th n  t 
h  t r   l p r p  t v  d    pr v d        n 
t r  t n   n   ht .
 h  t  nt  th   nt r  h  t r   f
f r l nd v l      nt  n  thr    tr   n 
f  t r  .   rh p  f r    t    th   n 
pr   d nt d  n r      th t h v      rr d
  n      2.  h  d  bl n   f f r l nd pr    
d r n  th  p  t f v     r  ( h l  r   n   t  
   p  nd  nn  l r t   f  6.  p r  nt  h  
b  n  nl  r   t l  p r ll l d b  t    th r
b    p r  d —b th     rr n  d r n  h  hl 
 nfl t  n r    r p r  d .   r n  th  f v     r 
  th n   n l  nd r  l f r l nd
v l    r    t r  npr   d nt d
   n   n    0 
 nd x,   6 = 00
 00 
r t      l 
200
 00
80
r  l     d ll r  
60
40
20
n   n l d ll r 
 0 	
   0	   20    0   40    0   60	    0
M r h    
   fl t d b   nd x  f pr     p  d b  f r  r  f r
f   l  l v n   t   .
  S n        th   nd x       p t r     f   br  r   .
  d r l     rv    n   f Ch     	    nd n   n   20, f r l nd v l    r     t       
p  nd  nn  l r t   f    p r  nt. S   l rl ,
th     p  nd  nn  l r t   f  n r     d r n 
th  f v     r   nd n   n   rl    4       2
p r  nt.
 h      nd  tr   n  f  t r     th 
r   r  bl    n   t nt  ptr nd  n f r l nd
v l    th t     rr d b t   n th    pr     n
l    nd th   n  t  f th    rr nt b   .  h  
 ptr nd       rr d  nl  b    n l     r
d  l n    n    8,   4 ,  nd     .  h  r       
 l   r   r  bl    n   t nt  n th t f r l nd
v l    d  bl d  n    h  f th  thr         r
p r  d  b t   n th       l    nd th     2
 n  t  f th    rr nt b   .  h     n   t n  
    r   hl      v l nt t       p  nd  n 
n  l r t   f  ppr    t  n  f  .  p r  nt.
 h  pr n  n  d d  ntr nd f ll   n 
th  W rld W r I b       th  th rd  tr   n 
f  t r   f th  t  nt  th   nt r  tr nd   n
f r l nd v l   .  h  d  ntr nd    
n t   rth  b th f r  t  d r t  n      n 
    t v     r — nd f r  t   t  pn    60 p r 
  nt b t   n th    20 p     nd th    pr   
   n l    f     .     v r  fr   th    pr   
   n l   r    r d  6    r — n l d n  th 
W rld W r II b    p r  d—b f r  l nd
v l    r t rn d t  th  r   rl  r p   .
  r l nd v l     dj  t d f r  nfl t  n
 dd  n  nt r  t n  d   n   n t  th  h   
t r   l p r p  t v   f th    rr nt b   . In    
  n  , th   dj  t  nt r fl  t  th  "r  l v l  
 f f r l nd,"  r  n th        th  "p r h   n 
p   r"  f  n   r   f f r l nd  n t r    f
   d   nd   rv     b   ht b  f r  r   n   6 .
 h  d   nd f r f r l nd  n p rt r fl  t 
 t  v l        h d       n t  nfl t  n.  h 
  n r l d  ntr nd  n r  l l nd v l    d r n 
   t  f th  f r t h lf  f th     nt r , h   v r,
 nd   t   l nd,  t b  t,      nl    p rt  l
h d       n t  nfl t  n. C nv r  l , th   p 
tr nd   n   th    d f rt     nd   t   th   p 
pr    t  n  n l nd v l    h     r  dl   x 
   d d  nfl t  n.  h   ptr nd  n r  l l nd
v l      n   th    d f ft    h   b  n  xtr    
l    n   t nt,   rr d  nl  b   l  ht d p   n
   0  nd     .
 h    r ll r  b t   n th    rr nt l nd
b     nd th  W rld W r I  nd W rld W r II
b        l  t  n th       r   f r  l l nd
v l   .  h  r     n l nd v l    d r n  th 
  rr nt b    h     r  dl   x   d d th 
h  h r t    f  nfl t  n, p  h n  th  r  l v l  
 f f r l nd  p 42 p r  nt d r n  th  l  t f v 
   r . C nv r  l , r l t v l  h  h  nfl t  n
r t   d r n  th  W rld W r I b    dr    d
r  l f r l nd v l      ll b l   th  r    4
p   —  p    n t     n   rp    d  nt l   60.
S   l rl , th  h  h  nfl t  n r t   d r n  th 
W rld W r II b    r   hl      l d th     
  l t  n  n l nd pr    , r   lt n   n   n r ll 
fl t f r l nd v l     h n  dj  t d f r  nfl  
t  n. Int r  t n l , th  l   p  nt  f th    n 
t r  f r r  l f r l nd v l        rr d  n   4 .
  r   n      nd l nd v l   
A   j r f  t r  nd rp nn n  th  d   nd
f r f r l nd    th   n      xp  t d t  b 
  n r t d b  th  l nd.  h r   r  n   r   
     r    f f r  r    n    , r fl  t n 
d ff r n    p  t   f th  f r  n  b   n     r
   r     f  n    . S     f th    r      
  n      r    f f r  r     rn n  —
 n l d n   r    f r   n    , n t f r   n 
    ,  nd  ff f r    rn n    f f r   p r t r
f   l   — r  d p  t d  n th  t    h rt   n
th  n xt p   .
  t   pr   n l ,    r t     r  h n     n
f r   n     ( r     r n t  d  n t tr    p r 
t   l rl   l   l    th  h n     n f r l nd
v l   .  h   v r ll tr nd   r      l r,
h   v r.  h      lt n      l d   n l nd
v l     nd  n     f ll   n  th  W rld W r I
p         lf  v d nt. Al  , th  thr     j r
l nd b     d r n  th    rr nt   nt r  h v 
   n  d d   th   r  n  l v l   f  r     nd n t
f r   n    .     v r, th  r l t v  r     n
f r   n          r    n r   nt    r  h   n t
b  n     r  t    th   n        n   xp r  
 n  d d r n  th  pr v     t   b    . In
  ntr  t, th     n   n l nd v l    h v  b  n
   h  r  t r d r n  th    rr nt b   .
M r  v r,  n l  ht  f th  l v l n   ff  n f r 
 n      n r   nt    r , th  r     n l nd v l   
d r n  th    rr nt b    h      n f   ntl   x 
   d d th  r     n f r   n    .   d  n  fr  
p  t r l t  n h p , th     pp rt  th    n  rn
 f  h th r th    rr nt b    h     rr  d l nd
pr     b   nd th  l v l j  t f  d b  f r 
  rn n  .
 2	 E  n       r p  t v  200
 00
80
60 —  r p r    pt  pl  
G v rn  nt
p    nt  t  f r  r 
40 —
20
 h      l t  n  n l nd v l   
  nt n  d d  p t    l v l n 
 n  r    f r   n     .. .
 nd x,   6 = 00
 00 r       l 
. . .  nd   d  l n   n
n t f r   n    
 nd x,   6 = 00
400
r t      l 
 00 —
200
n t f r   n    
 00
80
60
40
20
   0   20    0   40    0   60    0
•E t   t .
"M r h    f f ll   n     r.
 h  r l t  n h p b t   n f r   n    
 nd l nd v l    d r n  th  f ft     nd   rl    x 
t    p      n  nt r  t n  d v r   n  n th 
h  t r   l p r p  t v     d v r   n  h  h    
 l    nd rl   th    rr nt  pp r nt  n  n 
   t n   b t   n    n   n l nd v l     nd  n 
    . W th th   x  pt  n  f      f r l nd
v l    tr nd d  t  d l   p  rd d r n  th  f f 
t     nd   rl    xt   . In   ntr  t,  r       h
f r   n         r l t v l  fl t  nd n t f r 
 n     tr nd d  rr   l rl  l   r.  h  d  n 
tr nd  n n t  n      b  t  ff  t th  d  l n 
 n f r  n  b r , h ld n  n t  n     p r
f r     p r t v l  fl t d r n  th   p r  d.
App r ntl , th   h rp  nd   n   t nt  n 
 r       n  ff f r    rn n  —p rt   l rl 
  n   th    d f ft   —        j r f  t r p r 
  tt n  f r  r  t  b d l nd v l     t  d l 
h  h r. In th    d f ft     ff f r    rn n    f
f r   p r t r f   l      r      v l nt t 
 nl   n  h lf  f n t f r   n    .    th    d 
  xt     ff f r   n         l d n t f r   n 
    . And d r n  th  p  t t      r   ff f r 
  rn n   h v    b t nt  ll   x   d d th  h  h
l v l   f n t f r   n    . M r  v r, th 
 r  th  n  ff f r    rn n      n  th  l r   t
f r   d r n  th  p  t d   d  h     b t nt  ll 
 x   d d th t f r  ll  th r   z    f f r  .
A    p r   n  f r  l f r l nd v l     nd
r  l   rn n       tr   n   n t   r  p  t . On
th   n  h nd tr nd   n r  l n t f r   n    
  n   th    pr     n b  r l ttl  r    bl n  
t  tr nd   n r  l f r l nd v l   . In t r    f
th  p r h   n  p   r  f n t f r   n    , th 
   t pr  p r    f r   n        r      rr d
d r n  th    4     p r  d.   r n  th    p n
r  l f r   n      x   d d $  .  b ll  n  n 
n  ll ,   l v l   rp    d  n  nl  f  r  th r
   r      ,    8,     ,  nd    4—  n     0 .
   p t  th    xt nd d p r  d  f p   
p rf r  n    n r  l f r    rn n  , r  l l nd v l   ,
 lth   h tr nd n   rr   l rl  h  h r,
r    t r d  nl  n   n l    n .   t   n     
 nd    2, h   v r, r  l f r   n     tr nd d
 rr   l rl  l   r,  h l  r  l f r l nd v l   
  r    n r ll  r   n   t  d l . And   th
r  p  t t  tr nd    n      2, th         b  t
 h th r l nd pr     h v  r   n t  l v l   n 
j  t f  d b  n t f r    rn n      v v dl   v d nt
 h n b th      r    r   dj  t d f r  nfl  
t  n.    t    r r  l n t f r   n        
r   hl      l t  th  l v l  xp r  n  d  n   6 
  d r l     rv    n   f Ch     	   f r l nd v l   t
r  l   6  d ll r  
20
   0   20	    0   40	    0   60    0
 All      r    r  d fl t d b  th   nd x  f pr    
p  d b  f r  r  f r f   l  l v n   t   .
  E t   t .
tM r h    f f ll   n     r.
  t f r    rn n   dr p  h rpl 
 h n  dj  t d f r  nfl t  n,
 h l  f r  r   r  l  ff f r 
  rn n     nt n    p  rd
 nd x,   6 = 00
 00 r t      l 
200
 00
80
60
40
 nd th  t nth l    t  n th  p  t 40    r . On  
p r f r  b    , r  l n t  n          p  nl    
p r  nt fr   th    6  l v l. In   ntr  t, r  l
f r l nd v l      r    r  th n  0 p r  nt
 b v  th    6  l v l.
 h   th r  tr   n  f  t r   n th   b v 
 h rt    th      l r t  b t   n tr nd   n r  l
f r l nd v l     nd r  l   rn n    f f r 
 p r t r  fr    ff f r     r   , p rt   l rl 
  n   th    d f ft   . Wh l  th      l r t     
r fl  t   r   f      n  d nt l r th r th n  
     t  n l r l t  n h p,  t  l  rl   dd    p 
p rt t  th  th     th t n nf r    rn n   h v 
  ntr b t d t  f r  r      r    v  b dd n  f r
f r l nd.
  bt   rv   n  r    r   nt 
 h    r    n f r l nd v l    h  
r   ph   z d th  l n  t nd n    n  rn
 b  t th  d bt   rv   n    p   t   f h  h 
pr   d l nd p r h    .  h             ddr    d
 n th  f ll   n  t    h rt , f r t b   nd   t n 
th  r p d  ptr nd  n pr n  p l  nd  nt r  t
p    nt         t d   th f n n  n    l nd
p r h     nn  ll . S   ndl , th  tr nd  n  n 
n  l pr n  p l  nd  nt r  t p    nt     r l t d
t   n " xp  t d"  nn  l   r  t v l  
     r   f th    tp t fr    n   r   f l nd.
 h   v r    p r   r  d ll r v l    f
f r l nd   lt pl  d b  th  d bt t  p r h   
pr    r t   f r f r  r  l   t t  tr n f r 
pr v d     r   h  ppr x   t  n  f th  p r
  r  d bt       d  nn  ll  b  p r h   r   f
f r l nd.   r    h    r th  pr n  p l  nd  n 
t r  t p    nt  r fl  t th   nn  l p    nt
th t    ld b  r    r d t  r p   th  d bt  n 
  rr d  n  n   r   f f r l nd p r h   d th t
   r,       n    f ll     rt z d 2     r
  rt       th     l  nn  l p    nt   nd
  th  nt r  t r t      p r bl  t  th t  h r  d
b    d r l   nd   n    t th  b   nn n   f th 
   r.
Ann  l pr n  p l  nd  nt r  t ( &I 
p    nt  h v   n r    d f  t r th n l nd
v l      n   th    d f ft   , r fl  t n  th 
  n r l  ptr nd  n b th   rt     r t    nd
th  d bt t  p r h    pr    r t    n f r  r  l
  t t  tr n f r .  h  pr p rt  n  f p r h   
pr    f n n  d h    v r   d  b  t  6 p r  nt
 n r   nt    r ,     pp   d t   0 p r  nt  n
th    d   xt     nd 60 p r  nt  n th    d 
f ft   .
Ann  l  &I p    nt      h v    v d t 
  n   h  h   th r  p  t t  th  p r   r     h
 n     th t    ld b   xp  t d fr   r    n 
  rn, p rt   l rl   n Ill n   .  h   nn  l  &I
p    nt f r  n  v r      r   f Ill n   
f r l nd p r h   d d r n  th    rl    xt   
        v l nt t  j  t  v r 20 p r  nt  f th 
 r    r    pt  th t    ld b   xp  t d fr  
r    n    rn. A   n r l  ptr nd d r n  th 
l tt r p rt  f th    xt   —r fl  t n  r   n   n 
t r  t r t    nd ( n    0  bl  ht r d   d
   ld —r   lt d  n      0 p     f  4 p r  nt.
 h  pr p rt  n  f  r     n     r    r d t 
r p   d bt   t  ll  tr nd d d  n  rd d r 
 n  th  f r t h lf  f th    v nt   —r fl  t n 
l   r  nt r  t r t   ( n t  ll    nd h  h r  r  n
pr    .   v rth l   , th     t  n d  ptr nd  n
l nd v l    th  l  t t      r   nd l   r   rn
pr     h v  p  h d th  r t    f  &I p    nt 
t     h r    pt  t    n   h  h  f  r  nd 40
p r  nt  n Ill n   .  h  r t      n     v n
p r  nt    p  nt   b v  th  pr v        0
p     nd  b  t d  bl  th  l v l  t p   ll   x 
p r  n  d d r n  th    rl    xt   .
 4
	
E  n       r p  t v    p dl   n r    n  pr n  p l	 . . .  b  rb      h l r  r
 nd  nt r  t p    nt  .. .	 pr p rt  n  f    h r    pt 
 nd x,   6 = 00	 p r  nt
 00 r t      l 	 40
400
 00
 0
200
Ill n   
20
 00
80
60
40
0 	 	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 I
          6   6   6   6   6                 
 h  d r v t  n  f th  pr n  p l  nd  nt r  t p    nt f r  n    v n    r    b   d  n th      nt  f d bt
 n  rr d  n p r h   n   n   r   f l nd,  . ., th   v r    p r   r  d ll r v l     lt pl  d b  th  n t  n l
 v r    d bt t  p r h    pr    r t  .  h   n l               2     r f ll     rt z d   rt       th     l
 nn  l p    nt   nd  n  nt r  t r t      v l nt t  th   v r     h r  d b  f d r l l nd b n    t th  b   n 
n n   f th     r. In th  r  ht h nd  h rt th   nn  l pr n  p l  nd  nt r  t p    nt     xpr    d      p r  nt
 f th  " xp  t d" r t rn  fr   r    n   n   r   f   rn.  h  " xp  t d" r t rn    th   v r     f th  p r   r 
   ld  d r n  th  pr   d n  thr      r    lt pl  d b  th   v r     f   rn pr     r    v d b  f r  r  f r th 
p  t thr      r .
__. ..... 
 0 — 
	 U i e  S a es
  r  r  l   t t  d bt
 h  t  nt  th   nt r  r l t  n h p
b t   n f r l nd v l     nd f r  r  l   t t 
d bt,  n b l n  , h   b  n n  rl  p r ll l.
  th tr nd d  h rpl  h  h r d r n  th  f r t
t   d   d  , b t th n d  l n d f r   v r l
   r .   r th  p  t thr   d   d   b th l nd
v l     nd r  l   t t  d bt h v  r   n  h rpl .
 h  W rld W r II    r  pr v d d  n 
n t bl   x  pt  n t  th  r l t  n h p
b t   n f r l nd v l     nd   t t nd n 
f r  r  l   t t  d bt. In   ntr  t t  th  W rld
W r I b     nd th t  f r   nt    r , th 
W rld W r II b     n f r l nd v l           
   p n  d b    p  d  n  n f r  r  l   t t 
d bt. W th th   v  l b l t   f n     p t l
   d  t  th  pr v t     t r  r  tl    rt  l d
b  th  d v r   n t    r r l t d   n f   
t r n  d   nd , f r  r    nv rt d th  r
   r n  n t  n       nt  d bt r p    nt .   
th  b   nn n   f   46   t t nd n  f r  r  l
  t t  h d f ll n t          r l  .  h 
p  d  n pr b bl    ntr b t d,  nd r  tl , t 
th     t  n d  ptr nd  n l nd v l    d r n 
th  f ft     nd   rl    xt     h n f r   n     
  r  tr nd n  l   r.   r  r  h d
d   n tr t d th      ld h ndl  l r  
    nt   f d bt,  nd th  r   rl  r p  d  n
h d   n r t d     n  d r bl  " r d t
r   rv ."
 h   v  l b l t   f   rt     f n n  n    
 n th r   j r f  t r   pp rt n  th  d   nd
f r f r l nd.   r  r       bt  n  r d t fr  
n   r       r     n l d n   nd v d  l
  ll r ,  n t t t  n l l nd r ,  nd " th r"
l nd r .    t r   ll ,  nd v d  l  h v  pr  
v d d th  b l   f f n n  n  f r f r  tr n f r .
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 r  nd t   f fth ,  h l   n t t t  n l l nd r 
     nt d f r r   hl   n  h lf.
A  n   n t t t  n l l nd r       r   l
b n   h v    n   t ntl  pr v d d  b  t  n  
t nth  f th   nn  l  r d t  xt nd d t  f n n  
f r  r  l   t t  tr n f r .  h     n   t n  
h   v r, h   n t pr v  l d    n  l f   n 
  d r l     rv    n   f Ch     	   200 —
40
 0
8
6
4
   0   20    0   40    0   60    0
  r n      p n     nd f d r l l nd b n  
(     . In th    d   xt    l f   n  r n       
p n      r  th  l  d n   n t t t  n l h ld r
 f f r    rt     d bt, t p   ll  pr v d n 
  d r l l nd b n   p    r     n
  t t nd n  f r  r  l   t t  d bt
 nd x,   6 = 00
400 r t      l 
 00 —
 b  t  n  f fth  f th   nn  l v l     f  r d t
 xt nd d t  f n n   f r  r  l   t t  tr n f r .
In   ntr  t,      pr v d d  b  t  n  t nth.
In th   nt rv n n     r , th  r l   h v  b  n
   pl t l     t h d.   f   n  r n       
p n    h v  r  p nd d t  r  tr  t v     r 
   l n    nd  lt rn t v   nv  t  nt  pp r 
t n t    b  r d   n  th  r  h r  t  l    th n
 n  t nth  n r   nt    r . On th   th r h nd,
     n        nt f r  b  t  0 p r  nt  f th 
   h l r  r  nn  l v l     f  r d t  xt nd 
 d t  f n n   f r  r  l   t t  p r h    .
 h   n r    d r l   f       n f n n  n 
f r  r  l   t t  tr n f r   n r   nt    r    
r fl  t d  n th  r p d  r  th th   h v   x 
p r  n  d  n   t t nd n  .   r n  th  l nd
b     f th  p  t f v     r  f r  r  l   t t 
d bt h ld b       r     t      p  nd  nn  l
r t   f  8.  p r  nt,   t tr pp n  th   r  th
r t   n t t l f r  r  l   t t  d bt b   b  t  
p r  nt    p  nt   nd th   r  th r t   n
f r l nd v l    b   b  t 2 p r  nt    p  nt .
At th  b   nn n   f th      r th  $ 8.  b ll  n
 n f r  r  l   t t  d bt h ld b      
     nt d f r  n  th rd  f  ll f r  r  l   t t 
d bt  nd     v rt  ll      l t  th     b n d
p rtf l     f th  thr    th r   j r  n 
 t t t  n l l nd r  (b n  , l f   n  r n       
p n   ,  nd th    r  r      
Ad  n  tr t  n .
G r   .   nj   n
 6	 E  n       r p  t v  

Twentieth century trends in farmland values

http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/1977/ep_may_jun1977_part3_benjamin.pdf

Twentieth century trends in farmland values

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