International poverty projections

Abstract

The authors investigate the methodology used in projections of international poverty - particularly those used in many World Bank documents. The methodology, as developed by Ahluwalia, Carter, and Chenery (1979) in an influential paper, is examined critically and subjected to sensitivity analysis. It was found that their projections of poverty are not robust to reasonable changes and improvements in the methodology; in some cases, even the projections'time trend is reversed. Thus, analysts and policymakers should treat such global forecasts of poverty with caution.Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Inequality,Environmental Economics&Policies