Cenários de mudanças climáticas e agricultura no Brasil: impactos econômicos na Região Nordeste

Abstract

This article examines the impact of climate change in the Northeast from estimates of the availability of land suitable for agricultural activity in a range of cultures. This information, based on global warming scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), are introduced in an inter-regional computable general equilibrium model for Brazil, which allows analysis on various aspects of regional economic implications of this phenomenon. Our results indicate a high potential for economic losses in the Northeast, especially in poorer states, pointing to the need for policies to mitigate and control Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions. In the absence of such policies, the effects on employment can cause significant impacts on migratory flows, creating, for example, more pressure on infrastructure urban services in the metropolitan areas on the Northeast and other regions of the country.climate change, general equilibrium, regional economics Brazil