Desemprego: evidências da duração no Brasil metropolitano

Abstract

This work has as its objective to estimate the expected unemployment duration and to verify the reason for which the individual has difficulty of finding a new job in metropolitan Brazil in the year of 1999. For this purpose, we use the micro data’s of the Monthly Employment Survey (PME). The results obtained through the estimador of Kaplan-Meier show that the probability of the unemployed individuals stay in the unemployment state for at least 6 months is 48.83% and 25.10% for at least 1 year. On average unemployment duration is, approximately, 10 months. The parametric and extended parametric duration models allow to conclude that the individuals with grade levels of elementary and junior high school, with larger time of not- work, in son's condition and those resident in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro have smaller probability of finding a new job, while those that never worked with remuneration, those that receive FGTS in the last job, residents in the metropolitan areas of Recife, Salvador and Belo Horizonte have larger probability of leaving the state unemployment.unemployment duration; labor market