Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models

Abstract

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot prices. Then we evaluate their point and interval forecasting performance in relatively calm and extremely volatile periods preceding the market crash in winter 2000/2001. In particular, we test which innovations distributions/processes - Gaussian, GARCH, heavy-tailed (NIG, alpha-stable) or non-parametric - lead to best predictions.Electricity price forecasting; heavy tailed distribution; autoregression model; GARCH model; non-parametric noise; system load