Explaining IMF Arrangements: Was Asia Different?

Abstract

Claims have been made that capital account crisis (CAC) countries are discernibly different in terms of the characteristics that lead them to borrow from the IMF. This paper tests these claims. It uses a conventional model of IMF lending to estimate the probability of countries having an IMF arrangement on the basis of key economic circumstances. In particular it examines countries that have been identified by the Fund as capital account crisis countries but it also looks at a number of comparator countries. The findings suggest that there are some regional differences between CAC countries, but also differences within regions. Broadly speaking the findings confirm that Asian economies around the time of the 1997/98 crisis tended to turn to the IMF for financial support more quickly than would have been anticipated.