With Southeast Asian countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, and Viet Nam experiencing the increasing occurrence of weather and climate-related hazards and disasters in recent years, some of which they commonly share due to their close proximity to each other, it thus becomes important for them to cooperate and coordinate with one another in addressing said hazards and disasters.Southeast Asia, Philippines, weather, climate-related disasters, natural disasters

Israel, Danilo C.

English

Research Papers in Economics

Forecasting natural hazards and disasters
in selected Southeast Asian countries:
the need for cooperative action
Danilo C. Israel
Philippine Institute
for Development Studies
Surian sa mga Pag-aaral
Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas No. 2011-20 (December 2011) ISSN 1656-5266
PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on cer-
tain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful
inputs for decisionmaking.
The author is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute. The views expressed are
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the
study’s sponsors.
M
Policy Notes
      any countries in Southeast Asia
are highly susceptible to weather and
climate-related hazards and the disasters they
cause.1 However, because of the relatively still
developing state of their economies and
limited disaster response capabilities, some
countries in the region like Cambodia,
Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, and Viet
Nam may be more vulnerable than others.
These countries are also unique in that they
sometimes commonly experience natural
hazards and disasters that cut across national
borders such as typhoons and droughts.
Furthermore, their close proximity to each
other may allow for some forms of
intercountry cooperation to address these
problems in the future, specifically in the
case of weather and climate forecasting.
______________
1 Weather is the state of the atmosphere over a short
period, e.g., less than a year, while climate is the state
over a long period, e.g., years. In this paper, natural
disasters specifically include drought, extreme temperature,
flood, mass movement wet, storm, and wildfire. Mass
movement wet includes rockfall, landslide, avalanche, and
subsidence.
The most devastating typhoon of the 2009 Pacific typhoon season, Ketsana,
named Ondoy in the Philippines, also affected Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet
Nam. (Photo by NASA Earth Observatory)PN 2011-20
2
Policy Notes
This Policy Notes reviews the occurrence of
disasters caused by weather and climate-
related hazards in Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao
PDR, the Philippines, and Viet Nam, and the
socioeconomic damages that they have
caused. The Notes aims to highlight the
increasing incidence of natural disasters in
these countries and suggest some
recommendations for cooperative action
among them particularly in the
forecasting of natural hazards.
Background of the countries
Of the five countries considered,
Indonesia and the Philippines are
archipelagic while Cambodia, Lao
PDR, and Viet Nam are part of
mainland Asia and share borders with
each other. Lao PDR is landlocked
while Cambodia borders the Gulf of
Thailand and Viet Nam borders the
South China Sea. Indonesia has the
largest total land area, followed by
Viet Nam, the Philippines, Lao PDR,
and Cambodia (Table 1). Indonesia
also has the largest water area and
longest coastline. Population-wise,
Indonesia also has the largest,
followed by the Philippines, Viet
Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR. In
terms of gross domestic product
(GDP), Indonesia again has the
largest, followed by the Philippines, Viet Nam,
Cambodia, and Lao PDR. By international
standards, the economies of the five countries
are considered still developing.
Occurrence of natural disasters
Available data indicate that during the
decades of the 1990s and 2000s, weather and
climate-related natural disasters2 occurred in
the five countries on a regular basis (Table 2).
The Philippines had been the most disaster-
prone country, with the number of incidents
increasing from 96 in the 1990s to 132 in the
2000s, for a total of 228 disasters or an
______________
2 A natural disaster occurs if at least 10 people are killed
and/or 100 or more are affected and/or an appeal for
international assistance is made or a state of emergency is
declared.
Table 1. Some important features of selected ASEAN countries, 2009
Characteristics Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Philippines Viet Nam
Total area (sq km) 181,035 1,904,569 236,800 300,000 331,210
Land area (sq km) 176,515 1,811,569 230,800 298,170 310,070
Water area (sq km) 4,520 93,000 6,000 1,830* 21,140
Coastline (km) 443 54,716      0 36,289 3,444
Estimated population (millions)   14.5 240.3   6.8   97.9   88.6
GDP (billion dollars,
purchasing power parity) 27.92 968.5 14.61 324.9 258.2
Source of data: World Fact Book, Central Intelligence Agency.
* Philippine statistics record the total territorial water area of the country at 2,200,000 square kilometers
including the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Table 2. Total and average annual number of natural disasters
in selected ASEAN countries, 1990–2009
Period Cambodia Indonesia Lao-PDR Philippines Viet Nam All
Total disasters
1990–1999 7.0 36 12.0 96 44 195
2000–2009 13.0 93 6.0 132 76 320
1990–2009 20.0 129 18.0 228 120 515
Average annual disasters
1990–1999 0.7  3.6 1.2  9.6  4.4 19.5
2000–2009 1.3  9.3 0.6 13.2  7.6 32
1990–2009 1.0  6.5 0.9 11.4  6.0 25.8
Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster DatabasePN 2011-20
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Policy Notes
average of 11.4 disasters annually during the
last two decades. Following the Philippines in
terms of the number of disasters are
Indonesia, Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR
in that order. Indonesia actually had less
disasters compared to Viet Nam in the 1990s
but more in the 2000s. Of the countries, only
Lao PDR had fewer disasters in the 2000s
than in the 1990s. On the whole for the five
countries, the number of disasters was higher
in the 2000s at 320 than in the 1990s at 195,
indicating the increase in the occurrence of
disasters in the last two decades.
Most of the natural disasters in Cambodia, Lao
PDR, and Viet Nam, countries which are
traversed by the Mekong River, were floods
brought about by storms and occasional
typhoons. In Indonesia, the disasters included
floods, landslides, drought, and forest fires.
Meanwhile, about 15–20 typhoons occurred in
the Philippines every year which brought
about major floods, landslides, and other
related disasters. As earlier indicated, some of
the typhoons that originated in the
Philippines also travelled westward
to Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao
PDR. A few typhoons also reached
other neighboring countries like
Japan, China, and Taiwan,
sometimes bringing significant
destruction in these countries.
People affected by natural
disasters
During the 1990s and 2000s, the
number of people affected by
natural disasters in the five countries has
been substantial as can be seen in Table 3.
Following the pattern of occurrence of natural
disasters, the Philippines had the most
number of people affected, increasing from
35.2 million in the 1990s to 49.8 million in
the 2000s for a total of 85 million or an
average of 4.3 million yearly for the past two
decades. The Philippines was followed by Viet
Nam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Lao PDR in
that order. Cambodia, the Philippines, and
Viet Nam had more people affected by natural
disasters in the 2000s than in the 1990s
while the reverse was true for Indonesia and
Lao PDR. For all of the five countries, the
number of people affected by natural
disasters was higher in the 2000s at 84.3
million than in the 1990s at 69.5 million,
indicating the increasing number of people
affected during the past two decades.
Socioeconomic damages due to
natural disasters
Israel, in an earlier paper (2010), presented
the various social and economic sectors in a
Table 3. Total and average annual number of people affected
by natural disasters in selected ASEAN countries, 1990–2009
Period Cambodia Indonesia Lao-PDR Philippines Viet Nam All
Total affected
1990–1999 7.9 6.4 2.8 35.2 17.2 69.5
2000–2009 8.4 3.8 1.4 49.8 20.9 84.3
1990–2009 16.3 10.2 4.2 85.0 38.1 153.8
Average annual affected
1990–1999 0.78 0.6 0.3 3.5 1.7 6.9
2000–2009 0.83 0.4 0.1 5.0 2.1 8.4
1990–2009 0.81 0.5 0.2 4.3 1.9 7.7
Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster DatabasePN 2011-20
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Policy Notes
country that can be potentially affected by
weather and climate-related natural hazards
and disasters. He pointed out that there are
both direct and indirect damages brought
about by natural disasters. The secondary
data on the value of socioeconomic damages
presented in Table 4, however, reflect only
direct damages but not indirect damages.
Thus, these figures on socioeconomic damages
can be considered conservative estimates as
they are only a fraction of the value of total
damages caused by natural disasters.
Among the countries, Indonesia had the
highest value of damages at $10,082 million
in the 1990s and $1,765 million in the 2000s
for a total of $11,847 million or an average of
$592.35 million yearly during the past two
decades. The country was followed by Viet
Nam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Lao PDR
in that order. Viet Nam had higher
socioeconomic damages in the 2000s than in
the 1990s while the reverse was true for the
other four countries. For the five countries,
the value of socioeconomic damages was
higher in the 1990s at $15,963.2 million than
in the 2000s at $9,255 million for a total of
$25,238.2 million in the last two decades.
Such figures indicate that while the incidence
of and number of people affected by natural
disasters in totality in the five countries had
been increasing in the last two decades, the
value of socioeconomic damages had been
decreasing. This appears to be inconsistent but
some explanations can also be put forward.
First, as earlier mentioned, the socioeconomic
damages included in the computations are
only direct damages of natural disasters. The
inclusion of all damages could change the
figures. Second, the data on socioeconomic
damages may be preliminary and need to be
reviewed given the difficulty of putting
money values on socioeconomic damages.
But even with the current results, the
generated values of the socioeconomic
damages for the five countries are
clearly substantial and a real
cause of concern. Still,
recomputation of the
socioeconomic damages is in order
when more accurate data and
information become available.
Benefits from NMHS
improvements and
cooperation
An important way of reducing the
negative impacts of natural
Table 4. Total and average annual value of socioeconomic damages due
to natural disasters in selected ASEAN countries, 1990–2009
Period Cambodia Indonesia Lao-PDR Philippines Viet Nam All
Total value of damages
($ million)
1990–1999 252.5 10,082.0 308.0 2,692.0 2,628.7 15,963.2
2000–2009 213.0 1,765.0 101.0 2,121.0 5,055.0 9,255.0
1990–2009 465.5 11,847.0 429.0 4,813.0 7,683.7 25,238.2
Average annual value
of damages ($ million)
1990–1999 25.3 1,008.2 30.8 269.2 262.9 1,596.3
2000–2009 21.3 176.5 10.1 212.1 505.5 925.5
1990–2009 23.3  592.35 21.5 240.7 384.2 1,261.9
Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster DatabasePN 2011-20
5
Policy Notes
hazards and the disasters they
cause is to generate and provide
accurate and timely weather and
climate forecasting data and
information. In this regard,
improvements in the existing
national meteorological and
hydrological services (NMHS) of
a country may be needed.
Recent studies have indicated
that investments of a country in
NMHS would result to very low
cost-benefit (C/B) ratios or high
B/C ratios. The specific benefits
from NMHS improvements are
itemized by sector/industry in
Table 5.
Furthermore, since some types of natural
hazards such as typhoons and droughts have
transboundary implications, it would serve
well for governments, particularly those of
Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, the
Philippines, and Viet Nam to cooperate and
coordinate with each other and come up with
a subregional integrated approach for weather
and climate-related forecasting.
Recommendations
Over and above what has been undertaken for
the forecasting of natural hazards and
disasters at the level of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Cambodia,
Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, and Viet
Nam may undertake further common
initiatives to strengthen their capabilities for
the purpose. The following recommendations
are put forward for the pursuit of cooperation
and coordination among the countries in the
forecasting of natural hazards and disasters:
 Sharing of data and information among
countries, particularly on the forecasting of
natural events with transboundary
implications;
 Conduct of common training and
development programs among countries of
their NMHS personnel;
 Intercountry personnel visitation and
exchange for improved cooperation and
coordination;
 Conduct of common research and
development activities especially on
transboundary weather and climate-related
issues;
 Undertaking of international workshops
Table 5. Main benefits and impacts of NMHS improvements for a country
Sector/Industry                               Main Benefits and Impacts
Road traffic Accident reduction, savings in material and working times (road
maintenance)
Railway traffic On-time arrivals (time-value), savings in passenger and working times
(railway maintenance)
Maritime Reduction of accidents and environmental damages, fuel savings,
more efficient rescue operations
Aviation Reduction of accidents and emissions; savings in fuel, passenger
times, materials, and working times (airport maintenance)
Construction production Possibility of eliminating serious construction problems beforehand
(risk-controlling system)
Energy production Prediction of power demands, power failure reduction, savings in
material and working times (maintenance), energy savings
Air quality monitoring Reduction of adverse health impacts; saving of human lives in possible
and warnings environmental accidents (evacuations)
Flood protection Saving of human lives, savings in material damages, more efficient
rescue operations
Agriculture production Plant protection, crop dusting, right timing of harvesting
Source of information: Hautala et al. 2008PN 2011-20
6
Policy Notes
For further information, please contact
The Research Information Staff
Philippine Institute for Development Studies
NEDA sa Makati Building, 106 Amorsolo Street, Legaspi Village, 1229 Makati City
Telephone Nos: (63-2) 894-2584 and 893-5705
Fax Nos: (63-2) 893-9589 and 816-1091
E-mail: disrael@mail.pids.gov.ph; jliguton@mail.pids.gov.ph
The Policy Notes series is available online at http://www.pids.gov.ph. Reentered
as second class mail at the Business Mail Service Office under Permit No. PS-
570-04 NCR. Valid until December 31, 2011.
and other forums to promote exchange of
relevant data and information;
 Creation of intercountry committee or
organization for the forecasting of natural
hazards and disasters;
 Promotion of an integrated and
intercountry NMHS to reduce cost and
increase efficiency; and
 Coordination of search for outside sources
of funds for future NMHS improvements.
Summary and conclusion
In general, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR,
the Philippines, and Viet Nam have
experienced the increasing occurrence of
weather and climate-related hazards and
disasters, some of which they commonly share
because of their close proximity to each
other. The still developing state of their
economies also makes them more vulnerable
to natural events. Due to their closeness and
similarity of socioeconomic conditions,
cooperation and coordination among the
countries in addressing natural hazards and
disasters particularly in the area of weather
and climate-related forecasting would be a
much welcome approach. Such action would
help make the overall management of natural
hazards and disasters more efficient and
effective leading to a reduction of their
negative impacts. 
References
Hautala, R., P. Leviakangas, J. Rasanen, R. Oorni,
S. Sonninen, P. Vahanne, M. Hekkanen, M.
Ohlstrom, S. Saku, B. Tammelin, and A.
Venalainen. 2008. Benefits of meteorological
services in Southeastern Europe: an
assessment of potential benefits in Albania,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Moldova,
and Montenegro. VTT Working Papers 109.
Finland: VTT Technical Research Centre of
Finland and Finnish Meteorological Institute.
Israel, D. 2010. Weather and climate-related
disasters: the cost of inaction. PIDS Policy
Notes No. 2010-14. Makati City: Philippine
Institute for Development Studies.
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Central Intelligence Agency. The World Fact Book
[online]. https://www.cia.gov/library/
publications/the-world-factbook/geos/
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Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
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http://www.emdat.be/advanced-search.
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
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Benefits of meteorological services in Southeastern Europe: an assessment of potential benefits in Albania,

Weather and climate-related disasters: the cost of inaction.

Forecasting Natural Hazards and Disasters in Selected Southeast Asian Countries: The Need for Cooperative Action

http://dirp4.pids.gov.ph/ris/pn/pidspn1120.pdf

Forecasting Natural Hazards and Disasters in Selected Southeast Asian Countries: The Need for Cooperative Action

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