Giancarlo Corsetti

Gilles Saint-Paul

Hans-Werner Sinn

Jan-Egbert Sturm

John Hassler

Michael P. Devereux

Tim Jenkinson

Xavier Vives

English

Research Papers in Economics

   www.cesifo-group.de/eeag 
Revised forecasting tables 
25 February 2009 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A.1 
 
GDP growth, inflation and unemployment in various countries 
 
Source: EU; OECD; IMF; National Statistical Offices; 2008, 2009 and 2010: forecasts by the EEAG. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Share of
total GDP 
in % 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
EU27 34.5 0.9 -1.8 0.3 3.5 1.5 1.8 7.0 8.5 9.1
Euro area 25.0 0.7 -2.0 0.2 3.3 1.2 1.5 7.5 9.1 9.7
Switzerland 0.9 1.8 -0.5 0.6 2.4 0.6 1.4 3.5 3.7 4.2
Norway  0.8 2.6 0.8 1.2 3.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0
Western and Central Europe 36.2 1.0 -1.7 0.3 3.5 1.5 1.8 6.9 8.4 8.9
US 28.2 1.3 -1.5 0.0 4.3 0.3 1.3 5.7 7.5 7.5
Japan 9.0 -0.7 -3.0 0.2 1.4 -0.5 0.0 4.1 5.0 5.5
Canada 2.9 0.5 -1.2 0.7 2.5 1.3 1.6 6.1 7.0 6.8
Industrialised countries total 76.3 0.9 -1.8 0.2 3.5 0.8 1.4 6.1 7.6 7.9
Newly industrialised countries
Russia 2.6 6.3 -1.0 1.5 . . . . .  . 
China and Hongkong 7.1 9.4 6.3 7.0 . . . . .  . 
India 2.2 7.0 5.0 6.2
East Asia
a) 5.2 4.5 2.0 2.8 . . . . .  . 
Latin America 
b) 6.5 4.2 2.1 3.0 . . . . .  . 
Newly industrialised countries 
total 23.7 6.4 3.3 4.3 . . . . .  . 
Total
c)  100.0  2.2 -0.6 1.2 . . . . .  . 
World trade, volume 3.2 -2.0 1.5 . . . . .  . 
a) Weighted average of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore. Weighted with the 2007 GDP levels in US dollars. –
b) 
Weighted average of Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela. Weighted with the 2007 GDP levels in US dollars. –
c) Sum of 
the listed groups of countries. Weighted with the 2007 GDP levels in US dollars.. –
d) Standardised unemployment rate.
in %
GDP growth CPI inflation Unemployment rate
d)
in %   www.cesifo-group.de/eeag 
      Table A.2 
 
GDP growth, inflation and unemployment in the European countries 
Share of
total GDP 
in % 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
Germany  19.7 1.0 -2.4 -0.2 2.8 0.8 1.4 7.3 8.4 9.2
France  15.4 0.7 -2.0 0.3 3.2 1.0 1.5 7.8 8.7 9.5
Italy  12.5 -0.9 -2.2 0.0 3.5 1.3 1.3 6.9 8.0 8.5
Spain  8.5 1.1 -2.1 0.3 4.1 1.8 1.8 11.2 16.5 17.1
Netherlands  4.6 2.0 -1.2 0.7 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.8 3.5 4.0
Belgium  2.7 1.2 -1.9 0.3 4.5 1.6 1.7 7.1 7.5 8.0
Austria  2.2 1.6 -0.7 0.7 3.2 1.3 1.5 3.8 4.3 4.7
Greece  1.9 3.2 0.5 1.2 4.2 2.2 2.7 7.8 8.5 9.0
Finland 1.5 1.7 -0.5 1.1 3.9 2.0 2.1 6.4 7.0 7.5
Ireland  1.5 -1.9 -2.0 0.8 3.1 1.1 1.8 6.3 9.0 9.5
Portugal  1.3 0.0 -1.0 0.5 2.6 1.2 1.5 7.8 8.7 9.2
Slovakia 1.3 8.0 1.5 2.8 3.9 2.8 3.7 9.7 10.6 11.2
Slovenia  0.3 4.0 0.5 1.5 5.6 2.0 2.8 4.5 5.0 5.5
Luxembourg  0.3 2.0 -1.5 0.9 4.1 1.8 2.1 4.4 5.2 5.7
Cyprus 0.1 3.7 0.5 1.4 4.4 2.1 2.5 3.8 4.5 5.0
Malta 0.0 2.0 0.7 1.6 4.7 2.0 2.6 5.8 6.2 6.5
Euro area
c)
72.8 0.7 -2.0 0.2 3.3 1.2 1.5 7.5 9.1 9.7
United Kingdom  16.6 0.7 -2.5 0.3 3.7 2.1 2.2 5.6 7.7 8.5
Sweden  2.7 0.8 -1.0 0.6 3.3 1.7 1.9 6.2 7.5 8.0
Denmark  1.8 -0.3 -1.9 0.4 3.6 1.6 1.8 3.5 5.0 5.8
EU19
c)
94.0 0.7 -2.0 0.2 3.4 1.4 1.7 7.1 8.7 9.4
Poland  2.5 5.0 1.5 2.0 4.2 3.1 3.6 7.1 7.7 7.9
Czech Republic  1.0 4.0 1.3 1.9 6.3 2.4 2.9 4.4 5.5 5.8
Romania 1.0 7.0 2.5 3.3 7.9 4.0 4.5 5.9 6.5 6.3
Hungary  0.8 0.6 -1.5 0.8 6.1 3.6 4.0 7.9 9.0 9.5
Lithuania  0.2 3.3 1.0 -1.0 11.1 8.5 7.7 5.7 8.5 9.5
Bulgaria 0.2 5.2 2.2 3.5 12.0 7.3 8.5 5.7 6.5 6.5
Latvia  0.1 -2.3 -3.6 0.6 15.3 12.4 11.9 7.3 11.5 12.3
Estonia  0.1 -1.6 -2.8 0.9 10.6 8.8 8.3 6.0 10.2 11.4
EU8 6.0 4.2 1.1 1.9 6.3 3.8 4.3 6.4 7.4 7.6
EU27
c)
100.0 0.9 -1.8 0.3 3.5 1.5 1.8 7.0 8.5 9.1
a) Harmonised consumer price index (HCPI). – 
b)Standardised unemployment rate. – 
c) Sum of the listed countries. 
in % in %
GDP growth Inflation
a) Unemployment rate
b)
 
       Source: EUROSTAT; OECD; IMF; 2008, 2009 and 2010: forecasts by the EEAG. 
 
 
     Table A.3 
Key forecast figures for the euro area 
2007 2008 2009 2010
Real gross domestic product 2.6 0.7 -2.0 0.2
Private consumption 1.6 0.3 -1.3 0.2
Government consumption 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.7
Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 0.8 -5.5 0.3
Net exports
a) 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.3
Consumer prices
b) 2.2 3.3 1.2 1.5
Government fiscal balance
c) -0.6 -1.5 -3.2 -2.7
Unemployment rate
d) 7.4 7.5 9.1 9.7
a) Contributions to changes in real GDP (percentage of real GDP in previous year). - 
b) Harmonised consumer price index (HCPI).
 - 
c) 2008, 2009 and 2010: forecasts of the European Commission. 
d) Standardised unemployment rate.
Percentage change over previous year
Percentage of nominal gross domestic product
Percentage of labour force
 
     Source: Eurostat; 2008, 2009 and 2010: forecasts by the EEAG. 

Revised forecasting tables (25 February 2009) of Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy

http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-EEAG_Report/zs-eeag-2009/eeag_report_chap1revtable_2009.pdf

Revised forecasting tables (25 February 2009) of Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy

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