Taylor Principle And Inflation Stability In Emerging Market Countriesw

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflationtargeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico,Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country hasfollowed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from itstarget depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in mostcases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation.