Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific Islands

Abstract

Climate for a particular location and time of year is a description of the typical weather conditions experienced over a representative period of time (generally a few decades). Importantly, climate also describes the typical year-to-year variations and weather extremes of a region. The natural and managed biological systems on which we rely have become attuned to these local prevailing climate conditions. Earth’s climate varies naturally over a wide range of timescales. It varies from year to year and decade to decade due to a range of factors that can be either internal (such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) or external (such as the amount of incoming solar radiation, or volcanic aerosols) to the climate system (Bindoff et al. 2013; Hartmann et al. 2013). Over much longer timescales, changes in the Earth’s position relative to the Sun have produced swings between glacial and interglacial conditions (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2013). However, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century we have entered a new era of rapid global climate change that, while still influenced by natural cycles and forcings, is primarily driven by human actions. This is anthropogenic climate change (Stocker et al. 2013)