Efeitos da Globalização na Inflação Brasileira

Abstract

In this paper we present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which aims at evaluating the effects of trade globalization over inflation. The period of the inflation targeting regime (1999-2008) is employed to estimate the parameters for the Brazilian economy. The results show that trade globalization appreciates the terms of trade and reduces the inflation rate. Meanwhile to implement barriers to trade - for example, by increasing import and/or export taxes - affects positively the inflation rate. Under a secondary purpose of disseminating technical information, we derive in the appendix the model developed in the paper and we describe in the introduction the recent evolution of the Brazilian international trade.