Strategisk omvärldsanalys vid myndigheter

Abstract

This paper analyses strategic foresight (omvärldsanalys) in Swedish government authorities and asks questions on the scope, rationale and drivers, organisation, functions, results and content in reports, methods and theories, and importance. The answers to these questions pinpoint the phenomenon of strategic foresight. They provide also the basis for answering more fundamental questions: What is the advantage of strategic foresight in government authorities? Are there differences in benefits between authorities, and what can be said about quality? It is argued that benefits vary with the organization, activities and tasks, quality and position in the organization. Management behaviour is a key factor. Strategic foresight has specific procedures similar to research, and has gained in importance as interpreter of societal change and the future. One explanation could be an increased need for rapid analysis of change since uncertainty is perceived as a growing problem.Strategic foresight; Swedish government authorities; Management behaviour; Societal change; Future; Analysis of change; Uncertainty