The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts.Inflation (Finance)

Benoît Mojon

Marie Diron

English

Research Papers in Economics

Are ‘deep’ parameters stable? The Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, working paper,

Are there any reliable leading indicators for U.S. inflation and GDP growth?,” Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, working paper,

Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of its Monetary Policy Strategy,

Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics,

Definition of price stability, range, and point inflation targets: The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations,”

Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? Evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., UK,

Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes,” European Central Bank, Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network, working paper,

Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models,” Bank of England, working paper,

Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices,”

How the world achieved consensus on monetary policy,”

Implications of rational inattention,”

In search of a robust inflation forecast,” Economic Perspectives,

Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule,”

Leading indicators of euro area inflation and GDP growth,” Center for Economic Policy Research, discussion paper,

On target? The international experience with achieving inflation targets,” International Monetary Fund, working paper,

Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention,” Humboldt University, discussion paper,

Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from individual consumer price data,” European Central Bank, Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network, working paper,

Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from individual producer price data,” European Central Bank, Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network, working paper,

Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve,”

The empirical relevance of simple forward- and backward-looking models: A view from a dynamic general equilibrium model,” Sveriges Riksbank, working paper,

The pricing behavior of firms in the euro area: New survey evidence,” European Central Bank, Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network, working paper,

When can we forecast inflation?,”

Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2008/ep_2qtr2008_part3_diron_mojon.pdf

Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Research Papers in Economics