Jonathan A. Neuberger

English

Research Papers in Economics

FRBSF WEEKLY LETTEA
April 12, 1991
Depositor Discipline and Bank Runs
Reform of the u.s. banking system currently
occupies center stage among domestic policy
issues, with the spotlight on the recently released
Treasury proposal. The wide variety of opinions
expressed by industry experts, economists, and
politicians confirms that we are far from con-
sensus on the suitable direction for reform.
Many observers argue that banking reform
should encourage market discipline of banks.
A central question in this debate is who should
provide that discipline. The Administration's plan
includes proposals that would foster discipline
from bank depositors. In this Letter, I consider
some of the costs and benefits ofencouraging
depositor discipline.
Market discipline
Most firms fund their activities by issuing both
debt and equity securities to outside investors.
These "outside" funds exert market discipline
on firm behavior. For example, investors demand
a rate of return from a company's securities that
reflects the riskiness of the company's underlying
assets. The need to provide a risk-adjusted return
to investors determines to some degree the firm's
investment opportunities and may limit the risks
it is able to take. In addition, in times of financial
distress, outside investors may exert control over
the firm in order to limit their potential losses.
For example, shareholders may vote to change
management, or creditors may force the com-
pany to reorganize by initiating bankruptcy
proceedings. In either case, the risk of loss
encourages investors to discipline the firm
in order to alter its behavior.
Like most firms, banks fund their activities by
attracting money from outside sources. In con-
trast to other firms, however, most bank funding
comes from insured deposits. The protection
provided by deposit insurance means banks can
offer risk-free debt to depositors irrespective of
their portfolio risk. The rate of return on this debt
is thus unrelated to bank risk. Unlike other debt-
holders, moreover, insured depositors provide no
market discipline since they face no risk of loss
even if the bank experiences financial diffi-
culties.
Of course, not all deposits are insured. Regu-
latory practice, however, has effectively covered
almost all deposits at U.S. commercial banks.
Techniques used to resolve failed banks, such as
the purchase and assumption transaction, usually
provide complete restitution to all depositors,
including those not explicitly covered by insur-
ance. Depositors also can bypass the coverage
limits by holding multiple insured accounts.
Thus, depositors have not been a source of mar-
ket discipline for banks during the past several
decades.
Depositor discipline and bank runs
If banking reform is to foster depositor discipline,
it must place some depositors at risk of loss. This
could be accomplished by enforcing strict limits
on deposit insurance coverage or altering failed-
bank resolution techniques so fewer depositors
receive complete protection. How would depos-
itors exercise this market discipline? Unlike non-
bank creditors who typically have the power to
force a company into insolvency for failure to
meet debt obligations, bank depositors have no
such power. Bank deposits, however, have a
unique feature: they are payable on demand.
Thus, depositors can exercise market discipline
by immediately withdrawing funds from their
bank.
If many depositors withdraw their money at the
same time, a bank "run" can occur. If the bank
has insufficient reserves or liquid assets to meet
all of the depositors' demands, it may need to
borrow funds to payoffdepositors, or it may be
required to sell quickly some of its less liquid
assets, sometimes at prices below their true
valuein the portfolio. This loss of asset values
can lead to declines in bank net worth and may
even precipitate insolvency. Prior to the creation
of deposit insurance, it was not uncommon for
depositors to run on banks that were thought toFABSF
be in danger of failing. Many of these runs led to
the eventual failure of the banks. Deposit insur-
ance was enacted to eliminate the destabilizing
effect that such runs can have on the banking
system.
Banking reform that encourages depositor
discipline by placing some depositors at risk
raises the probability that runs will occur. In con-
sidering the role of bank runs, it is important to
distinguish between a run on an individual bank
and a run on the banking system. The first kind
of run may be "rational"i if depositors believe
that a bank is insolvent, it makes sense for them
to withdraw their funds. The costs associated
with this kind of limited bank run typically are
confined to the particular bank in question.
Since the bank bears the cost of the run, it will
be induced to hold more capital, maintain higher
reserve levels, or reduce risk taking in order to
minimize the likelihood that a run will occur.
Indeed, these are the beneficial aspects of
exposing a bank to depositor discipline.
A run on an individual bank, however, also
may affect other, solvent institutions or even the
banking system as a whole. Unless most (or all)
banks are insolvent, this second type of "con-
tagious" run generally is not rational. Contagious
runs (if, in fact, they ever do occur) are problem-
atic because they entail something economists
call a "negative externality!' Namely, if a run
starts at one bank and can spread to others, it
imposes costs not only on the bank in question
but also on the other banks. When determining
its own capital position or risk-taking posture,
however, an individual bank is unlikely to take
full account of the external costs associated with
runs. The size ofthis negative externality deter-
mines the costliness of bank runs and the desira-
bility of encouraging depositor discipline.
Evidence of bank panics
Consideration ofa policy to encourage depositor
discipline requires assessing the costs of bank
runs and comparing these costs to alternative
methods for resolving bank failures, such as
those currently employed by the FDIC. Because
bank runs have been virtually nonexistent since
deposit insurance was enacted, research on this
topic generally uses pre-1934 data.
Economic historians have identified a number
of bank runs prior to 1934. Most of these runs
were geographically contained, often in rural
areas, and many were limited to a small number
of banks. These runs involved disruptions to
local economies and losses by some depositors
at individual banks or groups of banks. Losses,
however, typically were quite small. A study
by Benston, et al. (1986) indicates that in the
12 years between 1865 and 1933 that the FDIC
identified as crisis years for bank failures,
depositor losses averaged only 0.78 percent
of total deposits in all commercial banks. One
reason for the limited losses, these authors sug-
gest, is that banks maintained high capital levels.
Abundant capital permitted banks to sustain
relatively high losses on assets before reaching
insolvency and subjecting depositors to losses.
Benston, et aI., argue that the costs imposed by
bank failures (and the associated bank runs) were
no greater than the costs imposed by the failure
of nonbanking firms. They suggest that most
bank runs represented effective exercises
in depositor discipline that promptly shut down
poorly managed or insolvent institutions.
While these losses were small, they exceeded
the recent loss experience of the FDIC. During
1988 and 1989, the two worst years for commer-
cial bank failures since deposit insurance was
enacted, FDIC losses were approximately 0.25
percent of total bank deposits at insured banks,
or roughly one-third of the depositor losses expe-
rienced during the crisis years prior to deposit
insurance.
While these numbers suggest the FDIC is more
efficient at closing banks, they also may under-
state the true losses associated with current bank
failures. A number of marginally solvent banks
remain open and receive FDIC support through
the "open assistance" program. Losses at these
banks typically are not included in FDIC loss
estimates. It is notable that a comparison of
losses relative to the deposits of banks actually
declared insolvent shows a similar experience
between the two periods. From 1930 to 1933,
losses by depositors as a percent ofthe deposits
offailed banks were about 20 percent. FDIC
losses in 1988 and 1989 were about 25 percent
of failed bank deposits. It is thus difficult to
suggest that closure by bank regulators is sig-
nificantly less costly than closure by bank runs
and depositor discipline.
The evidence on contagious bank panics is
somewhat more difficult to address, because
not all economists agree about the likelihoodof contained bank runs becoming contagious.
The study by Benston, et aI., for example, sug-
gests that only two or three episodes prior to
1930 showed any evidence of contagion (as
indicated by substantial increases in nationwide
currency-deposit ratios and absolute declines in
bank deposits). These researchers argue that the
u.s. banking system was fundamentally sound
prior to federal deposit insurance and was not
prone to destabilizing banking panics.
Even if they occur infrequently, however, the
negative externalities associated with contagious
bank runs could be considerable. In their famous
study of u.s. monetary history, Friedman and
Schwartz (1963) note that, in the banking panics
of the early 1930s, frightened depositors lost
confidence in the safety of u.s. banks, whether
they were solvent or not, and converted bank
accounts into currency. Banks met these deposit
withdrawals by drawing down their reserves and,
in some instances, liquidating assets. With frac-
tional reserve requirements, the ensuing decline
in reserves led to a multiple contraction of
deposits and a significant decline in the money
supply. This monetary contraction exacerbated
the economic depression sweeping the country.
Friedman and Schwartz blame the Federal
Reserve for failing to inject reserves into the
banking system, thereby offsetting the panic-
induced decline in the money supply.
Ben Bernanke (1983) describes another way that
the banking panics of the 1930s imposed signifi-
cant costs on the economy. His argument relies
on the notion that banks are special because they
provide unique intermediation services that help
to overcome information problems in financial
markets. He argues that bank runs led to a dis-
ruption in the provision of these intermediation
services by banks. As a result ofthese disrup-
tions, classes of borrowers found it difficult or
expensive to obtain credit. .
According to Bernanke, the large number
of bank runs that occurred in the early 1930s
produced a widespread credit crunch that only
worsened the decline in aggregate demand.
While it is difficult to assign specific figures
to these effects, Bernanke's work provides addi-
tional evidence that Depression-era banking
panics imposed significant costs on the u.S.
economy.
Should depositors discipline banks?
The benefits of depositor discipline involve
depositors acting in concert with regulators to
limit bank risk taking before the fact, and to close
troubled institutions on a timely basis. These
benefits must be carefully weighed against the
costs before recommending reforms to promote
such discipline. The costs of depositor discipline
include the costs of bank runs and, more impor-
tant, the external economic and social costs
imposed by contagious banking panics.
Much research suggests that banking markets
are fundamentally stable and not prone to con-
tagious runs. On the other hand, if banking
panics do occur, the costs can be substantial.
Indeed, continuing fear of banking panics may
mitigate against any policy that can be seen
to encourage bank runs.
It is appropriate in the current environment to
question policies and regulations that effectively
remove most market incentives from banks and
their owners and creditors. It is even more ap-
propriate to envision and propose policies that
will reintroduce market incentives and discipline
into bank market. The best way to accomplish
this goal is the difficult task currently facing
policymakers.
Jonathan A. Neuberger
Economist
References
Benston, G., R. Eisenbeis, P. Horvitz, E. Kane, and
G. Kaufman. 1986. Perspectives on Safe and Sound
Banking: Past, Present and Future. Cambridge: MIT
Press.
Bernanke, B. 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the
Financial Crisis in the Propagation ofthe Great
Depression!' American Economic Review (June)
pp.257-76.
Friedman, M., and A. Schwartz. 1963. A Monetary
History ofthe United States, 1867-1960. Princeton:
Princeton University Press.
Opinions expressed in this newsletter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco, or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Editorial comments may be addressed to the editor (Judith Goff) or to the author.••. Free copies of Federal Reserve
publications can be obtained from the Public Information Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, P.O. Box 7702,
San Francisco 94120. Phone (415) 974-2246.Research Department
Federal Reserve
Bank of
San Francisco
P.O. Box 7702
San Francisco, CA 94120

A Monetary History ofthe United States,

Editorial comments may be addressed to the editor (Judith Goff) or to the author.••. Free copies of Federal Reserve publications can be obtained from the Public Information Department, Federal Reserve Bank of

Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation ofthe Great Depression!' American Economic Review

Depositor discipline and bank runs

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