Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Kuhlmann, Friedrich

Moller, Detlev

English

Research Papers in Economics

Agrarwirtschaft 55 (2006), Heft 5/6 
213 
Land use under changing economic and political  
conditions – consequences of the CAP reform – 
Friedrich Kuhlmann  
Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen  
Detlev Möller  
Universität Kassel 
 
The spatial distribution of land use systems is determined 
by the physical, economic, political, institutional and tech-
nological environment. For land users this environment 
constitutes a set of exogenous variables. They try to opti-
mally adapt their production programmes and land use 
intensities to this set of variables consistent with their eco-
nomic objectives. Changing values of these exogenous 
variables thus trigger adjustments and may lead to changing 
regional land use patterns.  
Recent reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP 
Reform) have dramatically altered the conditions under 
which land use decisions are made. Decoupling, cross-
compliance and modulation will have a major influence on 
decisions for both, farmers and politicians. Expected 
changes in regional land use patterns and production inten-
sities will not only affect regional production and agricul-
tural income, but also other landscape functions such as the 
diversity of flora and fauna, recreational value, groundwater 
recharge etc. Although the implementation process of the 
new policy will take several years, some effects are ex-
pected to materialize rather soon. At present, empirical 
evidence is still insufficient. Nevertheless, decision support 
is needed - for farmers to meet the new challenges and for 
politicians because a review of the Common Agricultural 
Policy has been scheduled for 2009. 
“Land use modelling”, however, means more than just 
generating aggregate information on key variables such as 
value added, employment etc. In addition, it should provide 
quantitative forecasts of future land use patterns. Thus, 
appropriate modelling methods are employed to produce 
spatially explicit information. In many cases model results 
have been displayed in the form of maps which exhibit 
potential land use distributions of the regions under investi-
gation. 
For this issue researchers in the field of land use modelling 
were invited to present their research on the expected 
changes of regional land use patterns and landscape func-
tions under the conditions of the CAP Reform. The authors 
were asked to do both, analyze methodological aspects and 
present results of their models. The complexity of the prob-
lems have often required more than one researcher to be 
involved in the model building and application process, 
especially if two or more models needed to be interlinked. 
 
Under the common topic of “Land Use Changes”, the pa-
pers presented in this special issue cover a wide range of 
questions in detail. The most outstanding difference is the 
modelling scale. Starting from BRITZ et al., covering the 
entire European Union, the scale descends to the single 
farm approach, presented by SCHRIJVER et al. Within these 
boundaries, a multitude of scales are modelled and investi-
gated. As a consequence, some model results include 
statements on the multifunctionality arising from certain 
land use patterns. The applied methodology is mainly Lin-
ear Programming and extensions adapted to the nature of 
the considered problem. However, the challenge of spatially 
explicit modelling may require other approaches, as e.g. 
WEINMANN et al. discuss. 
BRITZ et al. present an enhanced version of the non-linear 
programming model CAPRI which covers the European 
Union, subdivided into 250 regions. The model is designed 
to predict the regional effects of the reformed CAP on land 
use distribution, as well as on commodity supply. In order 
to achieve endogeneity of product prices, the supply com-
ponent of CAPRI is linked to a global multi commodity 
market model. 
KÜPKER et al. present an analysis of expected consequences 
of the CAP reform by looking at the EU member states 
Germany and France. They apply the non-linear farm group 
optimization model EU-FARMIS which is based on farm 
level data. The expected consequences of the different re-
form implementation options, adopted by the two member 
states, are investigated on aggregate level, as well as for 
specific farming systems. 
KUHLMAN et al. investigate at the national scale of the 
Netherlands, how farmers’ behaviour are likely to change in 
reaction to the new regulations. Probable changes in land 
use patterns are generated for two different scenarios by 
linking a macro-economic model, an agricultural sector 
model and a land use model via the so-called “land use 
scanner”. The multi-model approach is employed to ensure 
spatially explicit forecasts of land use systems which result 
from macro-economic and sectoral effects of the CAP Re-
form. 
WEINMANN et al. apply the model ProLand, a spatially 
explicit land use model, using a different methodology to 
calculate future land use patterns. Site specific crop yields  
 Agrarwirtschaft 55 (2006), Heft 5/6 
214 
are treated as endogenous variables depending on site spe-
cific non-controllable growth factors, such as the available 
water (precipitation, usable field capacity) and solar energy 
(temperature sums). The land use projections can also be 
used as small-scale inputs to ecological and hydrological 
models, exploring the consequences for biodiversity and 
water balance. 
ROEDER et al. discuss if and how the individual behaviour 
of farmers can be integrated into a regionally differentiated 
Linear Programming model, by using the example of three 
typical grassland regions in southern Bavaria, Germany. 
The model aims at maximizing the utility of individual land 
users. A land market model is embedded into the linear 
optimization model. 
HAPPE et al. combine the models AgriPoliS and MODAM 
to generate responses of selected, heterogeneous farms to 
changes in direct payments. Associated impacts on the 
production of non-commodity outputs within a competitive 
and dynamic environment are also considered. 
Finally SCHRIJVER et al. deal with the single farm model 
FIONA, looking at management options for dairy farms 
under a new Dutch agricultural policy instrument called 
“Farming for Nature”. Under this scheme no external inputs 
to the farm are allowed. Similar to the approaches by 
WEINMANN et al. and HAPPE et al., FIONA also generates 
quantitative information on multifunctionality indicators of 
farming systems. 
In sum, this special issue provides a broad but certainly still 
incomplete overview of the state of the art in the field of 
model building and expected land use changes in the year 
zero of the reformed Common Agricultural Policy. Numer-
ous scales and methodological approaches are considered 
and employed. Obviously, there will be no single all en-
compassing model for the time being. Various “stand 
alone” models have to be used, as well as combinations of 
several models. 
The editors of this special issue of “Agrarwirtschaft” – the 
German Journal of Agricultural Economics – hope that   
the contributions will trigger a fruitful discussion to the 
benefit of the scientific community and, for that matter, also 
to the advantage of the respective “consumers” in the field 
of modelling, and predicting land use changes and their 
economic and ecological consequences under a changing 
policy regime. 
Authors: 
PROF. DR. DR. H. C. FRIEDRICH KUHLMANN 
Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen 
Institut für Betriebslehre der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft 
Senckenbergstr. 3, 35390 Gießen  
phone: 06 41-99 37 240, fax: 06 41-99 37 249 
e-mail: Kuhlmann.LBL1@agrar.uni-giessen.de 
PROF. DR. DETLEV MÖLLER 
Universität Kassel 
Fachbereich Ökologische Agrarwissenschaften 
Fachgebiet Betriebswirtschaft 
Steinstr. 19, 37213 Witzenhausen 
phone: 055 42-98 13 30, fax: 055 42-98 13 33 
e-mail: d.moeller@uni-kassel.de 
 

Land use under changing economic and political conditions – consequences of the CAP reform

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