Mayors’ Reelection Choice and the Economy: Evidence from Portugal

Abstract

Using a data set that covers all Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1979-2005, this study performs an empirical analysis of the economic determinants of Mayors' choice to run for another term. The literature on the subject is mainly centered on the United States and, as far as we know, no papers are found addressing the economic factors of this choice. Probit panel estimations show that local economic conditions matter more than the national or regional economic environment. The results also confirm that political variables are important and that they influence the likelihood of seeking reelection in the same way as they affect vote and popularity functions.Local elections, Reelection, Mayor, Economic conditions, Probit model.